review: hand 59

[Rev. Good Will]

Hand 59 -
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, <font color="red"> Button raises, </font> SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets, UTG+1 raises,</font> MP2 calls, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets,</font> MP2 calls, Button folds, <font color="red">Hero raises,</font> UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds.

River: (14 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets, </font> UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

I like PF/flop, although perhaps a 3-bet may be in order for the flop, don't know how to handle it myself on a paired board, and another opponents aggressive moves screams "trips!"

for the turn, we made our flush, horray! we are vulnurable, higher lone clubs can re-draw. I'd like to bet, hoping to get raised, as our only realistic way of folding holders of the Q through 6 club holders. I imagine the holder of the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is not folding here.

[ QUOTE ]
for the turn, we made our flush, horray! we are vulnurable, higher lone clubs can re-draw. I'd like to bet, hoping to get raised, as our only realistic way of folding holders of the Q through 6 club holders. I imagine the holder of the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is not folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet the turn here, my hand looks pretty obvious. I don't see trips raising here thus I check/raise for value.

[baronzeus]

Hero can do nothing but check/raise here and extract value while he is far ahead. Betting will induce calls and he will get less bets than if he check-raises.

[MN_Mime]

I'm not sure I agree that UTG+1 isn't simply isolating the BB bettor. I think a PP defends this way also; especially if he picked up a club redraw on the turn.

I like the turn C/R, but now I'm concerned with the call and river scare card. In addition to the flush, there's now a small chance that our trips case has filled up. Sure can't feel good about his river call.

I suppose you're still beating trips if he hasn't filled up (most of the time), but 25% of the time he's improved to a better flush. If he's pushing a PP 50% he has a club and I think 100% of the time if he's leading and calling the turn C/R.

In practice, I know that I bet the river too but I can't find that bet when I'm inspecting the logic.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I agree that UTG+1 isn't simply isolating the BB bettor. I think a PP defends this way also; especially if he picked up a club redraw on the turn.

I like the turn C/R, but now I'm concerned with the call and river scare card. In addition to the flush, there's now a small chance that our trips case has filled up. Sure can't feel good about his river call.

I suppose you're still beating trips if he hasn't filled up (most of the time), but 25% of the time he's improved to a better flush. If he's pushing a PP 50% he has a club and I think 100% of the time if he's leading and calling the turn C/R.

In practice, I know that I bet the river too but I can't find that bet when I'm inspecting the logic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly the river card is a bad one (although I'm not worried about someone filling up so much as a better flush). But it's far better to bet/fold than check/call here. A set or worse will clearly check behind but probably call a bet. A better flush is going to bet if you check. You will only be raised by a hand that beats you here.

[MN_Mime]

Interesting. I'd rather see the showdown than get bluffed off best hand.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I'd rather see the showdown than get bluffed off best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you think the villian is bluff/raising on a 4 flush board?

[MN_Mime]

Not very. Like everything it's read dependent. I'll do it in live play in rare spots and have been successful. Online, it probably never works...

I feel folding the river to make a "big fold" and losing a pot is worse than showing down a hand that has winning chances. You lose if you're raised. You lose the showdown if you're called. You may not get called, in which case you were winning anyway. The thin value bet is too costly the time you're wrong.

[Greg J]

As a qualitative answer, I like the turn CR a lot. You maximize yr winnings. While betting and hoping to get raised MIGHT make a medium [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] fold, it might not, but more importantly you are likely not getting raised if you bet out. Forget about betting hoping to get raised to protect -- pump up the pot for value.

Here is what I'm thinking I would do differently: What about a check/call line on the river? You are likely folding a better hand, so this makes a value bet less of a good idea. You are likely getting raised by a better hand and the pot is too big to fold IMO. Plus (and here is the heart of my reasoning), I think that a check might induce a bluff by a non club hand who thinks you might fold or a percieved vaue bet by trip tens. The trade off: if it's checked through with a worse hand that would have called you missed one bet. I would be willing to live with that.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think the villian is bluff/raising on a 4 flush board?

[/ QUOTE ]
Against most opponents? Approximately 0% of the time. But how often will villian bluff bet on the four flush board? Much more often I think.