Can I fold this, good hand?, good pot

[WillMagic]

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There's a flopped flush draw. You want to let the 3rd player see the river for 1 bet on the turn?

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It's better than getting three-bet, that's for sure.

Let's try and weigh it out.

The turn raise is good when we are ahead of the SB AND the other caller has specifically a flush draw, in which case we gain about .8 of a bet by raising instead of calling.

The turn raise is bad when:

a) the SB has us beat with a better ace and we get three-bet. Since we have to call, we lose about 1.8 BB's on the turn. If we can fold UI we'll save a BB on the river, for a net loss of .8 BB's as opposed to calling down.

b) the CO has a hand that is not a flush draw but that he could call with...if he has a low pocket pair and would call one bet on the turn but not two (not an inconceivable scenario) we lose about .5 BB by chasing him out when he already doesn't have the odds to draw. If he has an even worse hand, like x6, and he was willing to call one but not two, we'd be losing a full BB. Also in the rare situation that he has the better ace as opposed to the PFR, he certainly isn't folding, and we lose BB's then.

IMHO the latter scenarios are far more likely than the scenario in which the CO has a flush draw and the SB doesn't have us beat, and calling down is superior.

Will