($22) All-In on bubble? or sneak into 3rd?

[ebaudry]

Seat 2 will be blinded out in a couple hands. I need to clear both the tall stacks in order to steal succesfully.

I know about the principle of going for 1st due to ROI considerations (which would imply pushing), but do I risk an almost certain 3rd place?

***** Hand History for Game 2894559414 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16679637 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, October 18, 05:19:14 EDT 2005
Table Table 66843 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 9: ebaudry ( $1205 )
Seat 5: ronniass ( $2810 )
Seat 7: Take_it_EZ ( $3770 )
Seat 2: Beef_Ford ( $215 )
Trny:16679637 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ebaudry [ Kh Jd ]
ebaudry ???

[splashpot]

UTG I fold. If I was on the BTN or SB, I'd push.

[bawcerelli]

i don't think you can push this.

[Shillx]

Clear fold here unless they play too tight. It just isn't worth the risk in this spot as a T450 gain doesn't help you that much (you are still at the mercy of the big stacks). Even if you double up, you won't be able to do too many things with the way the stacks are. Too bad the HH's aren't working as I know we played at a few tables tonight. There were bound to be some interesting hands in there...

Brad

[housenuts]

foldski. i only push if i'm in SB

[tigerite]

They need (both SB and BB) to be calling 17% or less to make this a push. Assuming the button has a wide range that is.

If the short-stack were eliminated this would of course be an easy push.

When you fold here, you're forcing the blinds to eat up 1/4 your stack the next two hands. You'll be down to 755, which nearly cripples you. You'd barely have more than 2x BB! That also means you'd have close to no fold equity later on.

I'm not sure the best way to handle this situation. Get the weak 3rd place by guaranteeing yourself to have no fold equity? Push and take the blinds so you have enough chips to have some fold equity again later?

This really comes down to a personal choice. How badly do you need that $20, and how badly do you want a chance of winning the whole thing?
If you double at this point you are again a significant player and have a chance to win it. However I could certainly understand just waiting for the low stack to bust out and get your buyin back to try again later.
I lean towards pushing here, even if you get called by AQo you're only like a 3-2 dog, and you're only in bad shape if you get callled by a big pocket pair AA--JJ or are dominated by AK or AJ.

[sofere]

If I'm not mistaken, the BB is already all-in blind which makes this a push. Why would I give the small stack a 50/50 shot of doubling up if you have a good hand to take him out. If called by someone else, you'll finish ITM if and only if BB beats both you and other caller AND other caller beats you're hand. If no one calls, you're risking only 215 chips to win 365 and end the bubble.

If BB has 301 chips, this changes my thinking process drastically.

Seat 2 is the button, and Seat 2 is the short-stack. I imagine he would not have posted this if the short-stack were already forced all-in at the BB.