Dummy needs help with poker basics!

[amoeba]

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Just stop. All of you.

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Hey, I'm trying to learn. I bet a lot with overcards to my pair because most people miss most flops!

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answer my earlier post.

I have a nagging suspicion now that you are arguing for the sake of arguing.

[amoeba]

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you are changing what you are saying again.

obviously JJ is negative ev against AQ when A or Q flops but no J flops.

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Well now we are getting somewhere. So, how much plus EV? don't forget all flop and preflop money is in the pot. So, with our example both players shut down after the flop when they were beat, except the times J hits the turn or river and Ace or queen has flopped (2% of the time). But what about the times no J hits the turn or river if A or Q flops (24% of the time), if AQ is plus EV, how much? Is it enough to offset the previous 40 -15 disadvantage?

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I maintain that in an ideal setting where reraise range of both players and calling of reraise range of both players are Ak-AQ, AA-TT, JJ does not put any more money in once his flop bet has been called with an over on the board unless if a third J appears or some unlikely runner runner situation.

but even if we say that JJ is willing to call a 2nd bet despite all evidence showing that he is behind, then we would have to account for the possibility that holder of AQ bets a 2nd time on a AJXXX or QJXXX board in to JJ holders flopped or turned or rivered set and possibly calling an allin reraise.

After all, AQ holder does not know player 2 holds JJ, remember?

I also suggest moving this to SSNl as we are cluttering up MHNL with this.

[Mark1808]

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you are changing what you are saying again.

obviously JJ is negative ev against AQ when A or Q flops but no J flops.

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Well now we are getting somewhere. So, how much plus EV? don't forget all flop and preflop money is in the pot. So, with our example both players shut down after the flop when they were beat, except the times J hits the turn or river and Ace or queen has flopped (2% of the time). But what about the times no J hits the turn or river if A or Q flops (24% of the time), if AQ is plus EV, how much? Is it enough to offset the previous 40 -15 disadvantage?

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I maintain that in an ideal setting where reraise range of both players and calling of reraise range of both players are Ak-AQ, AA-TT, JJ does not put any more money in once his flop bet has been called with an over on the board unless if a third J appears or some unlikely runner runner situation.

but even if we say that JJ is willing to call a 2nd bet despite all evidence showing that he is behind, then we would have to account for the possibility that holder of AQ bets a 2nd time on a AJXXX or QJXXX board in to JJ holders flopped or turned or rivered set and possibly calling an allin reraise.

After all, AQ holder does not know player 2 holds JJ, remember?

I also suggest moving this to SSNl as we are cluttering up MHNL with this.

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Well where do I find the math that proves what you are saying? Jack flop and A or Q has already been accounted for (7%). Don't forget AQs makes a flush sometimes JJ makes trips turn and river, plus we don't know that stack sizes. Its all based on an estimation of how much can possibly be extracted from JJ once AQ hits. Your analysis is spot on, but what if the turn is check check, then a blank hits the river will AQ with TPTK fire out a bet, if so what size is likely to be called?

Don't worry about bandwith, the internets have lots!

[Mark1808]

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Just stop. All of you.

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Hey, I'm trying to learn. I bet a lot with overcards to my pair because most people miss most flops!

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answer my earlier post.

I have a nagging suspicion now that you are arguing for the sake of arguing.

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No I'm not, you are. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[phage]

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Hi Mark,

The other thread was a migraine, but not because of you. Mason showed a lot of disrespect for all of us. No one likes condescension, particularly from an "expert" or a HOST. Dan Harrington and Ray have likely already explained Mason's error to him. Mason misstated the original problem.

It caught me by surprise. I have come to expect that of David, who repeatedly stated "no one gave the correct answer" after I had given the correct answer to a few of his questions. However, while Mason has often spoken down to me in responses to my posts, he has not been so blatantly disrespectful in the past.

I disagree with your position on the AQ thing but do not think you are at all stupid. Diablo did present an arithmetic argument so run the numbers if you wish. Otherwise, you CAN identify constraints that make AQs a better hand. Mason did not though.

I appreciated Diablo presenting the numbers. I didn't have the stomach for it, because by that time I was already pissed and another "Best wishes" would've probably gotten me out of here for a long while. But then, why let Mason screw up a good forum?

You have taken extra heat because you have taken the side of disrespect, not because of your beliefs about AQs. Please do not take it personally.

Matt

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Hard to take something personally when I am nothing more than words on a computer screen. I give my thoughts and am told I am stupid. Smart people don't call other people stupid, at least this is my life experience. If you think JJ is not negative EV against AQ when A or Q hits the flop with no J coming on the flop than so be it. I do not see the math to prove it, because it is very dependent on player betting styles.

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Are you really only looking at this problem in the context of an A or Q hitting the flop?

[Mark1808]

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Are you really only looking at this problem in the context of an A or Q hitting the flop?

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In the example AQ vs JJ where JJ rerasies $150 preflop and AQ is looking at a $110 call, then it is assumed JJ makes 3/4 continuation bet no matter what. In this case JJ has an EV of 40 vs 15 for AQ and would be considered the better hand.

But can AQ gain extra EV by extracting bets from JJ after the flop when it hits? 2% of the time another J will come which I maintain one pair can easily get away from given the preflop action. However what of the 24% of the time when a J never comes and AQ is ahead, will there be any betting on the turn and river? If so and AQ wins, then that may be enough EV to offset the 40 - 15 JJ lead.

[amoeba]

its unlikely that AQ makes a flush when JJ hits a set because AQ is not continuing from the flop onwards unless if AQ pairs on the flop, which is mason's original assertion.

I maintain that JJ is not putting in another cent after his flop bet is called on a flop with an overcard as JJ has to put his opponent on a hand that called the flop to pure bluff a later street and that just doesn't happen often enough.

basically, if you assign additional EV to AQ the times that it flops a pair on possible called turn and river bets, then you have to assign additional EV to JJ for times that AQ bets 2nd bets in to JJ (which has not been accounted for).

if we ignore all further turn and river bets, then the numbers are in JJ's favor. If we believe that JJ pays off a turn or river bet when AQ flops a pair, then we must believe that AQ gives up additional value when JJ hits a set.

I think at this point you should accept that AQ is inferior to JJ. There is a reason mason has not posted on this anymore.

[Mark1808]

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its unlikely that AQ makes a flush when JJ hits a set because AQ is not continuing from the flop onwards unless if AQ pairs on the flop, which is mason's original assertion.

I maintain that JJ is not putting in another cent after his flop bet is called on a flop with an overcard as JJ has to put his opponent on a hand that called the flop to pure bluff a later street and that just doesn't happen often enough.

basically, if you assign additional EV to AQ the times that it flops a pair on possible called turn and river bets, then you have to assign additional EV to JJ for times that AQ bets 2nd bets in to JJ (which has not been accounted for).

if we ignore all further turn and river bets, then the numbers are in JJ's favor. If we believe that JJ pays off a turn or river bet when AQ flops a pair, then we must believe that AQ gives up additional value when JJ hits a set.

I think at this point you should accept that AQ is inferior to JJ. There is a reason mason has not posted on this anymore.

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If AQ has a 0% probability of getting anymore money out of JJ on the turn or river after Ace or Q flops and no J, (no J turn and river too) then you are 100% correct and I agree JJ would have a higher EV.