What I'm reading today

[PygmyHero]

Sorry DavidC. I meant no disrespect. I actually didn't really consciously type that, it's just how I read it in my head, and it came out my fingers.

I really enjoyed those posts. It was a great idea.

[PygmyHero]

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why not at least move to 2/4

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As it is not critical for me to move up in limits (either for purposes of income or self-esteem), I always figured I'd allow myself the luxury of moving slowly. In the past, I've just moved up whenever I've felt comfortable (all one times). Maybe that will strike some people as an insufficient reason for not moving up, but ultimately, for my game, it's my call.

However, if taking shots is a good tool for improving my game (which I want), then I'm going to have to entertain it more seriously.

[GrunchCan]

Not long ago somewhere in SSNL I posted my theory on taking shots. I don't have it handy, so I'll try to sum up.

For a good player, taking shots is a good idea. In fact, if done correctly, taking a shot can be more +EV than grinding a lower limit which you are properly rolled for.

"If done correctly," is the critical, key phrase here. If you do it wrong - and it's easy to do wrong - taking a shot can burn your whole roll. Not to mention your state of mind.

Here's what I do. I grind the limit I'm rolled for in order to build a "mini-roll" for a level I want to take a shot at. Usually that roll is 2 buyins (at the higher limit) at no-limit, or 50BB at limit. Once I've generated the roll, I take it and play my shot game, expecting to lose the entire roll. This is critical. You can't expect to make your shot hit the target. You'll play scared, or loose, or wild -- in some way, you'll be on mild perma-tilt. Expect to lose however and ironicaly you have a better chance to play your A game.

So I play my target level until I lose the roll (usually this happens several times), get sick/bored/frustated with taking the shot, or make it stick my generating a full playing bankroll at the shot level. The new full roll is generated completely by profits in the shot level. If I break my shot mini-roll, I go back to my original level (now still fully funded) and grind out a new mini-roll again.

For example, your level now is 1/2, and you want to take a shot at 2/4. You have $600. You generate $200 more, making your roll $800. Take $200 and go play 2/4. Go broke several times, creating a new $200 mini-roll each time. On the 4th attempt, you build your mini-roll up to $1200, making your total balance $1800. Congratulations. You are now a 2/4 player, and you never really risked anything to get there.

[PygmyHero]

Hey Grunch, thanks for stopping by. I like your shot taking plan - those guidelines will be very helpful to me if I give it a go. I'll probably try to run a search for your SSNL post, though if anyone has it, please link me.

I can take 50BB to the next level ($200 at 2/4) and have absolutely no problem losing it. The problem arises if I first win for a little while, and then bust out (never hitting the full 300BB, that is, $1200). Let's say I hit $1000. I know from my experience with sticky casino bonuses that I have a very hard time not looking at that as $800 of profit that is now mine. I feel a certain amount of entitlement and have some urges to protect that money.

The problem arises if I am still short of my target (300 BB for the shot, the wr for a casino). While I could still play perfect BJ, I wonder if I would play too tight and scared, thuse making it harder to pick up that last little bit and get to 300 BB.

In other words, if I win first, but then bust out, it feels like I took $1000 for my shot, and busted out. Which is not going to make me miss rent or anything, but still sucks.

I know that this is not the correct mindset, and I am struggling to fight it. I realize that the inability to stomach that sort of loss (or sort of pseudo-loss in the shot taking case) may inhibit my abilities as a poker player. I feel like the whole aversion to money that big players talk about is an attitude that has to be cultivated, and I worry that maybe I don't have enough of it for certain poker endeavours. If that's the case, I think I can be fine with that and I'll be happy with poker playing whatever role in my life it settles into.

It occurs to me that some people on the board may be critical of my thoughts, and I'm fine with that. I am being honest about how I feel, and I think this sort of self knowledge is important to making good decisions (not just in poker).

I enjoyed the read, but found it kind of discouraging to see how fast people can get to higher levels of play. I started playing for money the last week of July, and I'm currently playing $.50/1 with a whopping $300 in my account. I didn't realize people could be mulittabling 5/10 and above in this amount of time.

[PygmyHero]

Hey, I'm sorry to hear that those threads may have had the opposite effect on you from what I intended.

You say you haven't been playing poker for long, so just to make sure you're aware of this...those people are absolutely the exception. There are easily hundreds, if not thousands of stories of people busting out or breaking even, or just generally not making it for every one success story.

Obviously you don't tend to see those types of stories on the 2+2 boards. Don't lose your perspective. I played $0.50-$1 for a long time.

[PygmyHero]

More on taking shots:

Forum: HUSH Archives
Poster: SpiderMnkE
Post: What is the path from 1/2 to 5/10
Number: 1135559
Date: 10.15.04

A lot of the discussion in this thread is site specific, and may or may not still hold true. From the posts though, I am beginning to wonder if Grunch's 50 BB shot plan is enough. Maybe 100 BB would be a better number (assuming, of course, that a person found losing that amount palatable). Certainly it would seem to give you a better chance of overcoming any variance and short term results.

Actually, the other thing I found interesting was some talk about a plan I've read a little about before. Namely, hopping into a full ring game that is currently short, and leaving when it fills up. If you're playing against normal full ring opponenets, they may not make the correct (or any) SH adjustments, allowing you to run the table over. While I don't necessarily think this would improve your poker game (as you will eventually play a SH table were you're not able to LAG it up), it may help pad your BR (for the shot or maybe even during the shot).

I received this via PM, and I am grateful to that poster. I'm not sure if they're okay with me divulging their ID or not, so I'll just link it up:

Forum: SSH
Poster: Josh (formerly sthief09)
Post: Bankroll Theory and Taking Shots
Number: 3044308
Date: 8.3.05

This is a great post by Josh. I think he articulates a lot of the shot concepts and guidelines concisely. The rest of the thread kind of tails off into discussions about semantics and the exact size of a BR needed for such-and-such...you can probably skip everything but the OP and Smiley's correction about SD percentile.

[GrunchCan]

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A lot of the discussion in this thread is site specific, and may or may not still hold true. From the posts though, I am beginning to wonder if Grunch's 50 BB shot plan is enough. Maybe 100 BB would be a better number (assuming, of course, that a person found losing that amount palatable). Certainly it would seem to give you a better chance of overcoming any variance and short term results.

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I guess the size of the min-roll is player-dependant. Moreover, there are opposing forces at work when deciding the size of the roll. On the one hand, as you point out, a very small roll increases your exposure to variance and increases the chance that your shot may fail. But on the other hand, given that the roll is generated by grinding a smaller game, a 100BB mini-roll for the shot level could take a substantial amount of playing time to generate. The bigger the shot game is in relation to the regular game, the longer it takes to generate the roll and this effect is amplified.

So I guess everyone needs to decide for themselves how big of a roll they want to take a shot with. Consider how big the game is and how long it will take to create the mini-rolls you're considering. Also consider how tolerant you are of variance and how likely a failed attempt with a short roll will throw you off your game or dissuade you from trying again.

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...hopping into a full ring game that is currently short, and leaving when it fills up. If you're playing against normal full ring opponents, they may not make the correct (or any) SH adjustments, allowing you to run the table over. While I don't necessarily think this would improve your poker game (emphasis mine)

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I may misunderstand what you're saying here, but I definitely do think that playing SH -- namely, learning to play it well -- will improve your overall poker game. One of the more obvious ways it helps you is by preparing you for when you are playing a full game in late position and everyone folds around. This happens a lot. It's very similar to playing a SH table. Another way is by making you concentrate on your play in the blinds, which is very different in many ways from playing a non-blind position.

Learning to play SH is one of those things that every poker player must eventually do if the hope to be successful. Many players see it as a dreaded chore that they know they need to do but don't really want to, like taking out the garbage in a snowstorm. I used to feel exactly this way. Take it from me, once you learn to play SH, it won't be a dreaded chore anymore. You'll love it.

[DavidC]

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Sorry DavidC. I meant no disrespect. I actually didn't really consciously type that, it's just how I read it in my head, and it came out my fingers.

I really enjoyed those posts. It was a great idea.

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No worries, bro. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[PygmyHero]

Grunch - just to make sure I'm being 100% clear about this, I mean I login to Party, and look for 10 max and 9 max tables that currently have 2-5 people sitting at them, the fewer the better. I then sit at that table and play TAG, maybe LAG SH poker. When the table gets to 7-10 people, I leave, and repeat the process.

The idea is that I will be a better SH player than my opponents, who are accustomed to full ring play and won't know how to respond to my aggression. Once the game fills up, they're back in their element, so I have lost that edge (though I may or may not still have any edge at all). I leave and look for another table where I regain the SH edge.