Anything wrong here?

aargh57 · #1 12-14-2005, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How many outs are all of the "turn betters" giving us?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say 4.5.

[ QUOTE ]
Are we ahead of drawing?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by this?

[ QUOTE ]
is our opponent folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the question. Of course a read would help here but I think that many players would fold for a turn bet that called the flop with as much as second pair. Now, that won't happen the majority of the time with most players but I think it happens often enough to make this play the right one also considering you have outs if you're behind. You could also be ahead to somebody with overcards (or even an Ace overcard that had a bd draw on the flop). I think this is a good time for a semi-bluff with a possibility that you've got the best hand a small percentage of the time. Granted, a pot this small isn't as valuable a time to semi-bluff but I think you've got to be willing to make these plays at six max. Also, by checking you're inviting even the most passive players to bet into you with weak holdings on the river.

jba · #2 12-14-2005, 12:57 PM

I bet fold this turn. There is a good chance you are ahead here, people are going to peel that flop with total crap.

I am undecided on your river play. it is unclear to me if we're ahead 10% of the time after he 3bets.

milesdyson · #3 12-14-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet fold this turn. There is a good chance you are ahead here, people are going to peel that flop with total crap.

I am undecided on your river play. it is unclear to me if we're ahead 10% of the time after he 3bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
we aren't, but i think it's worth paying off to see what he played like this.

jba · #4 12-14-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
we aren't, but i think it's worth paying off to see what he played like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is about the most overrated thing on this board, the whole paying off for info thing. the player pool is so big that if the EV of this is even -.2bb I don't think we should expect to ever make it up based on a read.

milesdyson · #5 12-14-2005, 02:10 PM

that's where we disagree - i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information.

plus this guy is an unknown and he has now shown an aggressive move - it is more likely that this player is overaggressive simply based on this. we really have no idea how often we're good here, but calling can not be very bad.

jba · #6 12-14-2005, 02:13 PM

"i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information."

considering my winrate is around .02BB/hand, -.2/bb seems like a big ass hole to dig out of..

cfjr2 · #7 12-14-2005, 02:19 PM

depends you may lose .2 bb immediately but if the info is worth anything you should save or make additional fractions against this villan for the remaining time he stays at the table.

milesdyson · #8 12-14-2005, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information."

considering my winrate is around .02BB/hand, -.2/bb seems like a big ass hole to dig out of..

[/ QUOTE ]
ten hands is a big ass hole?

plus you really don't think seeing his hand is going to help you immensely against him later in this session? i mean sure it's possible he just gets up and leaves soon, or you're nearing the end of your own session. but if you plan to stay, it's not a big loss for the info you get.