Two Plus Two Older Archives Post Flop odds calculations
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#1
06-29-2005, 08:42 PM
 MegumiAmano Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 38
Post Flop odds calculations

In the back of Hold'em Poker, they list the chance of getting one card you need from the next two dealt at 8.4% for two outs. This would make it 11:1 (100-8.4 / 8.4 : 1) to turn a pair into a set after you've missed on the flop.

Given that, here's a hand that I played recently.

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Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ???
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My only read this early into a session was that the button seemed to know what he was doing and the table wasn't all that loose.

Given 11:1 odds on two outs and 14:1 pot odds, is this a no-brainer call? Should I worry about being raised from this position, which could kill my pot odds? Other thoughts?
#2
06-29-2005, 08:48 PM
 milesdyson Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 197
Re: Post Flop odds calculations

is the turn two cards in this variant of hold'em?

because unless you're going to somehow get a free card there on the turn, you're not getting 14:1 to draw for two cards.
#3
06-29-2005, 09:04 PM
 MegumiAmano Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 38
Re: Post Flop odds calculations

Well, there are the implied odds, but I see your point. The problem that I've been having is that it's great to go back and look at old hands with a calculator. But figuring this out at the speed of live play is still difficult for me.

If I didn't think that it was going to get raised, would I be more correct to put it at ~14:3?
#4
06-29-2005, 09:15 PM
 milesdyson Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 197
Re: Post Flop odds calculations

[ QUOTE ]
If I didn't think that it was going to get raised, would I be more correct to put it at ~14:3?

[/ QUOTE ]
honestly try not to look at a chart or anything. thinking that it's 14:3 is making life complicated, and it's basically making too many assumptions. you don't know if it won't get raised, you don't know how many callers you're going to get, etc. etc.

let's simplify things. let's make you last to act getting 14:1 on a flop call, and you know SB to be very tight, so much so that you are definitely drawing to 2 outs against him.

you need to look at your odds to hit one of your outs on the turn, and you need to figure in implied odds here, meaning how many bets will you be able to make up if you call without the proper immediate odds. the odds to hit one of two outs on the turn is 45/2, or 22.5:1. you will need to make up ~9 sb on the turn and river if you hit.

depending on your relative position and how many (and how loose) players are trapped between the preflop raiser and you, this may be possible.

if it were heads up, this would be a fold, because you would only get those 9 sb if he had KK and had you drawing nearly dead on the flop.

i could go on, but i think that explains it.
#5
06-29-2005, 09:21 PM
 MegumiAmano Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 38
Re: Post Flop odds calculations

Yes, that helps a lot. Thank you.

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