10/20 37s

[jason_t]

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im quite surprised at how many ppl like to pump their 7 high flush draws.

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I would not pump here meaning I would not bet/3-bet.

[SA125]

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Is this just part of "me have equity me raise me not weak" 2+2 mantra?

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Nice one.

[CardSharpCook]

Treat each street as a prop bet. On the money that gets in on the flop, Jason_T takes 30-37% (maybe he gets running 3s). Thus, juice the pot when there are 3 others certainly and often when there are only 2. Fine, it is a 7-hi flush draw, but the odds that someone else both has the same draw AND the draw gets there are rather low. Fine, there is a redraw, but that doesn't change the fact that if a redraw is possible, your turn equity is huge. There are other poker theories that, at times, override this principle, but if you treat limit poker as street by street prop bets with the taking of poor odds being the cost of admission to the entire pot, you'll do well (or at least slightly better than if you didn't do this).

[27offsooot]

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Is this just part of "me have equity me raise me not weak" 2+2 mantra?

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Nice one.

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sorry if i was an [censored], i tend to be that way.

Also check ur pm.

[BigEndian]

Your prop bet is not taking into account the money you have to put in on the turn if you miss but assuming you still have 2-1 equity.

- Jim

[CardSharpCook]

The turn is a new street. I don't plan to juice the street. On the flop, I want to juice it, because I have 35% eq. On the turn, my eq is down to 18%, so it is a rare pot indeed that I'd want to juice. On the red turn, I become the one how has to take a bad prop bet for access to a huge pot.

[Victor]

hi cardsharp,

your equity is somewhat less than 35% on the flop.

[jason_t]

When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

[SackUp]

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When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

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I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

[jason_t]

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When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

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I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

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Yeah it's the third guy that complicates the thinking and the math. It's probably best to just remember the Win Large Pots Immediately section from TOP, 3-bet and get on with it.