$109s - AQ River Snap?

[jeffraider]

I think this is a pretty easy fold. What hands does he limp then call your raise with out of position that you're snapping off? KQ? A9? Everything else he may have has you beat. Of course there's random donk factor, which I think is less here than at the $22s, but still, there's five cards out there that he could have weakly connected with. I think folding is best here, raising is next and calling is the worst option.

Semi-bluffing the turn is best I think, because there aren't many hands you're beating no matter what the river is so I don't like inducing a bluff here.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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The reason you check the turn is to get him to bet 90-140 chips on the river... right?


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Ya that and:

- I don't mind taking a free card with 10 winning outs.
- My flop check loosens his turn calling range up enough that I don't think I have enough FE over hands I'm actually behind to bother betting.

Add em all up and its an easy chck?

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Well, you have to be pretty sure he'd bluff at it on the river. Otherwise you are just giving away free cards.

Also, if he has a draw like xxh, A9 or KQ, you might as well value bet the turn before you both miss.

Maybe your flop check encourages crap like 55 to call you on the turn, but if you check then turn and call the river, it's costing you the same anyway.

I'm not saying a check is wrong. It's just not clear to me without a read. Keep in mind that I'm very rusty.

[Annulus]

Everyone is saying they would definitly bet the turn, but why not bet the flop? Please fill me in here guys. Am I that much out of the loop where the continuation bet on the flop is outdated?

Also, if you are not going to bet the flop or the turn I think this is a pretty standard fold on the river. There is a very good chance he has you beat and trying to make him fold just seems too risky.

[jeffraider]

Betting flops is no longer 1.4. The new cool style is to call any size flop bet, "play poker on the turn" by minbetting and then hopefully calling any sized river bet except for exactly 2/3s of the pot which is clearly an unbeatable game theory bet.

No seriously I have no idea, I'd bet this flop a lot. The only thing I can think of is that Unarmed simply can not fire at every flop that's not terrible for him after he raises preflop, and has to mix things up. It's also possible that it's leaving him too open to exploitation considering his tougher competition.

[mosdef]

Betting the flop as a continuation bet is a nice, straightforward way to make money in the long run. Checking the flop and playing the turn and river extremely well is probably more profitable, but with the caveat that if you screw up the turn and river you've turned a winning line into a losing line.

Playing the turn and river well enough to do better than you can by betting the flop is hard. That's why posts like this are valuable. They introduce to you the possibility of turning a standard profitable line into an even better, more profitable line.

[tigerite]

They pick up more on cont bets at the $109s, and often times raise you. Here Unarmed would be raised by a flush draw, straight draw, J, a lot of pairs, and occasionally air. Not a nice situation to be in with A high.

[mosdef]

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They pick up more on cont bets at the $109s, and often times raise you. Here Unarmed would be raised by a flush draw, straight draw, J, a lot of pairs, and occasionally air. Not a nice situation to be in with A high.

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Sure, but a c-bet would probably still "work" i.e. be +EV, just not as +EV as checking and playing well thereafter.

One could probably say the same about the turn.

[Annulus]

I understand where you are coming from. But in this situation I don't think trying to build a pot on the turn and river with Ace high is a good idea, even for a savvy player. I still think if you are going to fire a shot (cont. bet) that betting the flop in this situation is better than betting at the turn. Whats so appealing about betting the turn?

[mosdef]

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Whats so appealing about betting the turn?

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Well, I'll leave it to the "bet the turn" guys to answer this one. As I noted above, I'm not against checking the turn.

I think the turn screams for you to bet. I have no problem with betting the flop though checking is fine too but you gotta bet that turn. Not to build a pot but to take it down. JMO