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  #11  
Old 11-10-2005, 06:29 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

That's not as much of a flaw as you think.

w/o seeing the cards, players would muck QQ here every time.
--

The point Matt trries to make is that there are TONS of people that would say to pass up on teh situation even KNOWING that it's a 'coinflip'
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  #12  
Old 11-10-2005, 06:29 PM
KneeCo KneeCo is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[ QUOTE ]
One huge problem with Matt's article / point of view.

Did anyone else notice that HE SAW THE AK of diamonds.

I don't know about you, but the last time I played poker for $10,000... not to many people were showing me their cards.

My point is that if just 1 out of 10... or even 1 out of 20 times... your read is wrong... and it's not a coinflip (turns out your dominated)... it scews all the numbers that he based his thesis on.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is arguing that you wouldn't fold QQ there against a push. It's actually an easy fold (in an event with a WSOP ME type structure of course).

However, there are some players, who even if they saw the AK would actually think: Im one of the best players here, I don't need to win a coin flip to accumulate chips, I'll pick a better spot to push my chips in the middle. This fallacious thinking is what Matt is debunking in his article. Seeing the villains cards is just a device to illustrate his point clearly.
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  #13  
Old 11-10-2005, 06:51 PM
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling here doesn’t negate our skill over the field. Calling here is our skill over the field.


[/ QUOTE ]

End of thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok ... I'll be a flak magnet by saying I lay this hand down in a heartbeat.

Why?

- First off, a guy that makes this kind of play is probably the worst player at the table if not the tournament. I figure to be able to get a decent chunk of this guys chips in better situations anyway. Why rush?

- Second, I'm starting out with 0.1% of the chips. If I double first hand .... ok fine ..... I now have 0.2%. Am I realistically any less or more of a favorite to get to the money or finish high in the money? IMHO, no.

- Third, if I decide to lay that hand down, I make sure to show everyone that I'm laying it down. It is a classic dump, purposely intended to make people fire at will at me. It loosens people up and makes it more likely that they will be trying to outplay me with lesser hands.

IMHO, there is one fatal flaw in the Matros argument. Yes Matros counts down the number of times he has doubled up. He also states correctly that he is doing well by doubling up in the majority of his all-ins. Ok, fine, I'll buy that.

However, what he fails to do is establish any correlation between the points of the tournaments at which he made his doubles, versus the eventual finish in the tournament.

If asked in reality, I would doubt seriously that he would admit to pushing all-in during the first hand or first orbit of a major tournament ....... ever!!

My last question is whether or not this article is written for entertainment value, or as true professional advice from a world-class pro to any amateur who comes across it?

IMHO, this article has entertainment value and little else.

EDIT:
Let's take the argument two steps further.

- Replace the two Queens with two Jacks. Do you still make the call? The odds are almost the same.

- Replace the two Queens with two Tens. Do you still make the call? The odds are almost the same.

If you can't answer yes to the same question for the QQ, JJ and TT, then there is a flaw in the logic. You either call with all 3 or lay down all three. If you follow Matros' logic, then you call with everything down to about 55, or you fold with everything. Who in their right mind would do that?
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  #14  
Old 11-10-2005, 06:57 PM
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[ QUOTE ]


IMHO, this article has entertainment value and little else. [ QUOTE ]


I aggree... I respect Matt's research and hit outline... however...

It's a lot easier to grab your balls and "say" your willing to coin-flip for large sums of potential cash than to actually do it.
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  #15  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:01 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

I think 500% ROI is extremely difficult but attainable by a few people and 300% is not horribly out of the ordinary from the numbers I've seen. For me, this particular hand would be a fold...

...but I'd call if he had AKo, so it's pretty close.
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  #16  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:05 PM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[ QUOTE ]
You don’t want to risk your whole tournament on one hand? Then you shouldn’t be in the tournament

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Regards,
Woodguy
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  #17  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:06 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[ QUOTE ]
I think 500% ROI is extremely difficult but attainable by a few people and 300% is not horribly out of the ordinary from the numbers I've seen. For me, this particular hand would be a fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

being 5x better would be a 400% ROI.. wouldn't it?

sorry for being nit-picky. (or stupid, if i'm wrong)
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  #18  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:06 PM
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

Spree, yours might be the worst post ever.
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  #19  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:09 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

No problem, I suck at math and actually edited 5x to say 500%, lol. I meant 5x/3x.
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  #20  
Old 11-10-2005, 07:20 PM
limon limon is offline
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Default u fold u lose baby!

donk.
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