top 2 pair on a two-tone flop, 5-way action...

[creedofhubris]

10-10 NL.

I limp K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from MP after a limper. Button and blinds come in.

Flop:

K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Pot: $50

Blinds check.

Decent EP ($1000 behind) bets out $30.

I (cover) make it $90.

Button (no read, $600) min-raises to $150.

SB pushes for $200

BB pushes for $280

EP types some things into the chat window and flat calls the $280.

Action's on me.

Note: this is not a normal sort of action for this game, which is usually rather tight.

[BobboFitos]

i go broke!

[flawless_victory]

push!
(fvck it!)
come on K!

[ahnuld]

someone has 666 is my guess. Cant see them all having only draws. Id fold but I play like a puss sometimes

[psuasskicker]

I think at this point I've gotta try putting some people on some hand ranges before deciding...

You've got KT, meaning there's two Kings left, two Tens, and three Sixes. No raise discounts the possibility of KK other than a tricky EP limper, but I can't imagine if he's on KK he doesn't move in with all that flop action. Same logic for TT, though more likely since it's more likely to be limped than KK. 66 is a definite possibility.

EP I think has to be on some sort of draw, IMO, and I would think it's gotta be a great one. He's got ridiculous action behind him and flat calls? AK I would think he'd have raised PF, KQ or worse would be a really fishy call there (honestly I think AK would be as well, but I think it's made far more often there than KQ). I put his most likely hands as A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Now you have button min reraising, an all in, and a call. Best case scenario, if EP is on one of those draws, two of the other three are drawing. I don't think that's overly likely, but certainly possible. But what's gonna draw like that? 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe? Realistically the best case would be if there are three draws, it goes:
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Y[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

That leaves one other player, in which case virtually your only hope is that he's on AK, or maybe one of the blinds has T6 or K6, or maybe that you're chopping with KT.

If three spade draws aren't out, what other hands can withstand that sort of action? Maybe AK, but I think the only hands that can take it are KT or better.

With three flush draws and AK, your odds are just above 48% to win the hand. However, change one of the flush draws to 66, and your odds drop to 14.2%. Worse yet, if you then change AK to KT, it drops under 5%. If you're against T6 or K6 instead of the other KT, you're right around 15%.

I think your only hope of having enough equity from the pot to continue in this hand is if you're against three flush draws and a worse hand (AK, T6, etc); or you're facing a bunch of morons who will give that much action with KQ or worse. Otherwise you're in deep trouble with a hand unlikely to improve to best, easily outdrawn, and risking what will likely be a major chunk of money. I think you have no move here but all in or fold. With EP's cold call I think it's most likely he's on a big flush draw, but I think it's likely you're already facing another flush draw. So calling and moving in on a blank turn does you no good chasing one draw off the hand but leaving another in...I think you want him getting all the money in now in that case.

But based on those ranges, I think I lean toward folding here, especially since you have nothing invested in this pot. Pocket sixes, I probably lean more toward moving in.

- C -

[psuasskicker]

One extention on this...

If you really think EP has a draw, and you really think he'll call you with it if you move in, moving in becomes far more attractive since it's much less likely he catches if other draws are out there and the side pot will be big enough to still be valuable to you.

Problem is, you have button to worry about as well, and 66 is a definite concern from him, which would chop heavily into that side pot.

I still lean towards folding here, but if you're certain EP is drawing and will call and not tricking you with KK or TT here (or maybe 66), moving in at least looks more attractive.

- C -

[AZK]

Creed,

KTs? WTF? Of clubs no less?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Creed,

KTs? WTF? Of clubs no less?

[/ QUOTE ]

Me play loose sometime.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
push!
(fvck it!)
come on K!

[/ QUOTE ]

[creedofhubris]

If I'd thought about it, this is what I would've ended up with. As it was, my thought process was: "WTF kind of hand puts in a second raise and it's a minraise? That's a set for sure." Plus I was running bad, so I mucked pretty quickly.

Anyway, I was up against the following mess:

Js9s (BB)
As2s (SB)
KhTh (decent player)
6c6d (min-3bet guy)

Giving me a two-out draw for a chop. Assuming the dude with the straight flush draw doesn't out-redraw us.