Bluff this river?

bobbyi · #1 10-31-2005, 04:32 AM

Don't know much about opponent other than stats.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB (40/3/1.2/42) calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

etizzle · #2 10-31-2005, 04:34 AM

for some reason this decision is very interesting to me. I am going to dick around with the numbers and be back in a little bit.

TomBrooks · #3 10-31-2005, 04:45 AM

Check it through. He's likely putting you on overcards and probably won't fold any pair. He is loose and could have called with a hand that has a five or six and I don't think he'll fold it. He could have a T8 or T7 and be afraid of being outkicked. He might fold a king or an ace, but I don't know if this will be his holding and happen enough to invest another bet.

kapw7 · #4 10-31-2005, 04:45 AM

You give him 7:1 pot odds.
Do you think he can fold A-high?
Otherwise your bluff bet has some value if he folds K-high (KJ or KQ) and you win half a pot if he folds QJ.
I'm not sure but even the possibility of him folding these hands together with the big odds for the bluff make it worthwhile (?)

jdl22 · #5 10-31-2005, 04:47 AM

Check.

I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of, A high maybe but most of these guys will fold the turn I would think. My guess is he has some pair or has just picked up a third nine.

baronzeus · #6 10-31-2005, 04:47 AM

honestly, i would never ever bet here. but that doesn't mean im right. i just know that with my luck i will be called down whenever i bet and whenever i check he will have K high.

jfresh · #7 10-31-2005, 04:50 AM

i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..

bobbyi · #8 10-31-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't find any hands he'll fold here that you're ahead of

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would I want him to fold hands that I'm ahead of?

bobbyi · #9 10-31-2005, 01:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't tihnk there is anything that called the flop and turn that is gonna fold this river, so i think i would just check..

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. I'm not saying a bet is right, but I don't agree with this statement at all. I think KQ/KJ/QJ call this river almost never.

7ontheline · #10 10-31-2005, 01:12 PM

I'd check this. He is a loose-passive donk according to his stats and will fold a pair probably never. THere aren't that many draws on this board either. Basically you're hoping he folds unpaired A or K-high and I don't think he has those often enough AND folds them to make a bet here worth it. I think more times than 1 in 8 he has a crappy pair or even an ace he won't fold. If he has some lousy low card straight draw you're winning anyway.