..winter weather>>>natural gas..^^^

scalf · #1 10-17-2005, 06:56 PM

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] hey; whatcha think about an above average cold winter..i.e. ave temps well below normal:

well:

we have had a dry sept followed by a wet early oct: this pattern has been followed by colder, more miserable winters 8/8 times during the last 150 years in u.s.a....and...and...the pacific decadal oscillator which runs on a ten to fifteen year cycle indicates a high probability of much colder winter weather in u.s.a. and earlier cold weather..

well; what's this mean (just for the moment, assuming these predictors are accurate) :

natural gas thru the roof; as gulf coast facilities nowhere near repair to working order...but even if they come onstream..not enuf gas to go around; and people will buy even at $..

so now is the time to strike..

gl

jmho

my advice is worth whatcha paid for it: [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] nothing

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
25

#2 10-17-2005, 07:13 PM

id be slightly careful. alot of people thought gasoline and oil were going way way higher after the hurricanes

vindikation · #3 10-17-2005, 07:18 PM

I thought about this today as well. I was thinking about investing in one of these ETF's:

VDE & XLE

#4 10-17-2005, 07:24 PM

what i was saying is that alot of people thought that you should buy gas futures and oil futures after the hurricanes. they were pretty wrong. most people think nat gas is going higher so just think there is some danger in the trade.

Sniper · #5 10-18-2005, 12:03 AM

Scalf,

Do you think this "pattern" is already priced in?

AceHigh · #6 10-18-2005, 06:10 PM

I think you are right, but I think it is a little early to buy.

Which companies are you thinking of? SWN?

vindikation · #7 10-18-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about this today as well. I was thinking about investing in one of these ETF's:

VDE & XLE

[/ QUOTE ]

YIKES!!! Glad I didn't buy these ETF's today (click their links)

kagame · #8 10-18-2005, 09:04 PM

im in CHK and EQT which i bought on the recent weakness

both have large natural gas reserves and EQT is a takeover target

really hope the winter is bitterly cold! im such a bastard!

scalf · #9 10-21-2005, 12:40 PM

lotta good points; the energy mrkt will be volatile in the coming months; but i feel that no one has fully taken into their pricing model the true severity of this winter in north america..

jmho

my stock

ANR

gl

my advice is worth the price ya paid fer it:

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Ray Zee · #10 10-22-2005, 01:31 AM

we are seeing with gasoline that people are conserving and the same will happen with heating though somewhat less.
since out west anyway we have had warm winters i would rather invest in someone who makes ice melt or sanding machines rather than the energy companies. more bang for your buck and more correlated to the weather.