Commerce 10/20 - Bad Call with Bottom Set?

[lapoker17]

Commerce 10/20 over the weekend. Villain is the only guy at the table that I respect. A solid (solid meaning rockish, not too tricky) pro. He knows that I screw around a little, but I show down big hands. Anyway.

I ($2300) limp after a limper in EMP w 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

A few more limpers, including villain ($5000).

Bad SB ($1200) makes it $80 out of the blinds. First limper calls, I call, all call.

6 to the flop for $360.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Original raiser bets $150

I make it $650.

Solid pro calls(?). All others fold.

I know he has a set and decide I will push any non-pairing turn card including all spades (I think he's too good to have like the naked ace or something).

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I push, he calls.

We run it twice, and chop the pot (he hits quads on the first run).

So, my qhestion is this - Isn't his call on the flop terrible? Is his call on the turn even worse?

I lost respect for the guy as a player after this hand. I think I get away from bottom set on the flop there. How about you?

what do you mean by "we run it twice"?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
How about you?

[/ QUOTE ]
God I hope so.

The call on the flop is a bit tougher, and would come down to read. From villian's perspective, it might seem fairly likely that you're just running a play on PFRer here.

On the turn, the only hands he's ahead of are bluffs/semi-bluffs, and it doesn't seem likely that you'd continue running this bluff after he cold calls..

[Big_Jim]

In big pots in live games, when all the chips are in before all the cards are out, the players will sometimes ask the dealer to "run it twice," meaning that the dealer will run out the remaining cards twice. Whoever wins with the first deal wins half, whoever wins with the second deal wins the other half.

In this case, the Villian sucked out on the first run when the river was a 2, and lap won the second one when the river was a blank.

[lapoker17]

If he knows I'm good - Which I think he does, he's gotta know that I'm probably not making a move with 3 players left to act behind me, including him, who I know is a rock - I don't think my balls are big enough to make a move here - I wish they were, though.

[Big_Jim]

Thinking about this hand a little more... I can't even come up with too many realistic hands for you to be semi-bluffing here with....

I just don't see you limping in with too many offsuit Aces in EP....
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Tx?

This would mean that your bet was more likely to be a real hand or a total bluff. Making that play on the flop with so many people left to act, AND the turn push with a total bluff would require balls the size of watermellons.

Again.. I sure like to think that I would fold it on the flop.

[ethan]

On the turn, he has 22% equity vs your hand, 82% vs a pair+spade, and 2% vs a higher set. 82% is also his equity vs a random hand, if he thinks you're doing this with complete air despite all the people left to act. He's getting about 2.1:1, meaning he needs 32% equity for the call to be profitable.

His equity vs some sample ranges, with the percentages being the probability of you holding that hand:
flush/pr+draw/set : equity
--------------------------
50%/25%/25% : 32%
50%/10%/40% : 20%
33%/33%/33% : 35%
25%/25%/50% : 27%
-----------------------------------

On the turn, unless you're pushing draws or air fairly often his call's incorrect. The flop call's probably closer, but he's getting worse than 2:1 with four players left to act including the flop bettor. Again, he needs to be ahead of you a fair amount of the time to make it correct. I think he just overestimated the likelihood of you running a semibluff.

[arod15]

Run it 3 times and yes I'd have about 0 respect for him. He should have mucked.....

[lapoker17]

3 times was not one of the options.

[craze9]

Two Things.

First to answer your question, strictly speaking yes these are two bad calls. The obvious scenario is that he is drawing to 10 outs w/ no chance of getting paid if he hits, and he cold calls a substantial raise. Given the information that you assume (about your image and about his skill), it should be a very easy fold.

However, if you play so that this is an easy fold for your opponent, maybe you should change the way you play. In other words: you don't want this to be an easy fold. You want there to be the doubt in your opponent's head, you want him to always think that you could be getting out of line, that you could be taking advantage of his "rockishness." No one likes to fold a set, especially not live where everything moves so slowly and you may not flop one all night, so you want to take advantage of that reluctance by constantly instilling the idea in your opponent that you are messing with him.

Obviously I have no idea if you do that or not, and it seems like this hand worked out perfectly. But I think the question you asked is wrongheaded. You want your opponent to think "I have a set. He could easily have J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Auto Call."

Btw why the hell did you run it twice?