|
|
#1
10-07-2005, 10:10 AM
|
|||
|
|||
2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
No reads on villian, What do you guys do on the river?
Paradise $50 PL Omaha Dealt to hero in the BB Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 limps, SB completes, Hero checks. flop is 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checked around turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SB checks, Hero bets the pot, folded to SB who calls. river is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB instantly bets the pot, hero? What do you guys do in this situation? 
|
|
#2
10-07-2005, 11:34 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
I feel like... with no reads, its just a guess.
How about... how was the guys stack? Barring no other information, I'll give a guy with a huge stack a little more credit then I would to someone who has a 1/4 buyin.
|
|
#3
10-07-2005, 12:14 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
personally I would fold though I play very tight. He wasn't staying in for a flush draw, may have a set, but just as likely to have a straight equal or higher than yours. My guess is that he had a 9 straight but now with the added bonus of a free flush draw.
|
|
#4
10-07-2005, 12:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
Without knowing anything else, I probably fold. He is more likely to have you beaten or tied than for you to be beating him.
|
|
#5
10-07-2005, 12:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
[ QUOTE ]
My guess is that he had a 9 straight but now with the added bonus of a free flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] And where would be hoping to hit his flush, six-street? In the van down by the river?
|
|
#6
10-07-2005, 12:21 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
If he has T8 would he not likely raise the turn? He hits his gin card then check-calls? He could concievably be waiting for a safe river card, but with the nuts on the turn most would pot it or check-raise you there. I think this is a call.
|
|
#7
10-07-2005, 12:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
[ QUOTE ]
If he has T8 would he not likely raise the turn? He hits his gin card then check-calls? He could concievably be waiting for a safe river card, but with the nuts on the turn most would pot it or check-raise you there. I think this is a call. [/ QUOTE ] This would be true in the bigger games, but in the smaller games you will find players waiting for the nuts on the river before putting in a bet or raise. I would call here, at least until I got to know the player better.
|
|
#8
10-07-2005, 12:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like... with no reads, its just a guess. How about... how was the guys stack? Barring no other information, I'll give a guy with a huge stack a little more credit then I would to someone who has a 1/4 buyin. [/ QUOTE ] I had about 160 BB stack, he had something like 60 BB when the hand started. No reads on that specific player, but this was the $50 game on paradise, which is the lowest game available there. So the table is very good.
|
|
#9
10-07-2005, 12:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river
First, 6 people saw that turn so someone will have a straight more than 50% of the time. Making multiple pot bets without one here is suicide.
You already represented a made straight and he called and now he's betting into you. There are only 3 possabilities : he has a 10 straight, a 9 straight, or he's an idiot (or perhaps a genius who has somehow put you on a 9 straight). If my math is correct there's about $9 in the pot when villain wakes up and pots it. Ignoring the last one for now, there are 9 ways he could have you tied and 12 he could have you beat. Therefore, a call nets you $4.5 9 times and costs $9 12 times for an average of just over $3. Now, if you have him beat you win $18. This means that he needs to be bluffing here more than 20% of the time to make a call an winning play. That's very high for this board at these stakes at Pokerstars where I play. Now let's say he folds the 9 straight if you raise $X back and re-pots with the ten straight. Your raise wins you $18 9 times out of 21 and costs you X 12 times out of 21. To break even you need to bet $18*9/21 = $7.71 or less. This isn't enough to qualify as call, much less a raise. Unless you have a good (make that very good) reason to believe he has a set or less this is a clear fold.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
