Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn

[IronDragon1]

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I thought this one was pretty interesting. What's your move on the turn?

$100 PL Omaha (Real Money) Total number of players : 10

Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG
Seat 3: Hero ( $99 ) = SB

Preflop:
Dealt to Hero [ T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Villain raises [$3.50], folded to Hero in SB, Hero calls [$3]

** Dealing Flop ** $7.60 [ 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$7.60], Hero calls [$7.60].

** Dealing Turn ** [ K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$22.05], Hero ???

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Run, don't walk to push.

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Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK?

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No. But I'd say it's at least 50% chance of AA. Maybe 1/6 KK.

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My thinking is that a LAG will rasie with KK just, or nearly, as much as with AA. Furthermore, I assume that he wouldn't be this aggressive with anything less. Finally, even if he has less then he is near drawing dead and a raise will probably just make him fold.

Is this unreasonable?

[RickyG]

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Run, don't walk to push.

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I would have bet this flop. I disagree with the analysis that he must have AA or KK here. As a bit of a LAG myself, I can tell you that the range of hands extends far beyond this to any good wrap, something like qqkj or kqjj and even worse. Letting the LAG control the action here is a mistake IMO, especially since he is likely to put you in a situation where you might consider folding a monster like second set and the nut flushdraw, AND a gutshot straight draw.

Assuming your set isnt winning (which it will be 50% of the time or more if we assume only AA and KK) you have 12 outs to improve. so 50% of the time you are winning, and 24% of the time you will draw o the best hand.

Assuming he always folds the AA and always calls the KK:
50% of the time, he folds, you win the pot: +$44
12.5% of the time, he calls, you win the pot: + 121 ( believe I did this right, the size of the final pot, minus the size of his all in bet on turn)
37.5% of the time: you go all in for ~$77 more and lose: -$77

I believe that makes going all in +$8 every time, but I dont have practice doing this type of math so my numbers may be wrong.

I also believe that lots of times he will have hands other than AA or KK (like KT, or 66) and he will sometimes call sometimes fold, making it even more +ev.

if you are the kind of player that will consider folding this on the turn, you should not be slowplaying on this flop.

[3rdEye]

I don't see why we have to put him on KK. He's made standard pot sized continuation bets on each street. He could have done this with a number of hands, including AA that picked up a straight or flush draw on the turn.

[joewatch]

Villain did have KK, but I sucked out a spade on the river.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[liquid]

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Villain did have KK, but I sucked out a spade on the river.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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So what were your turn thoughts/action? I'd be torn between pushing and letting villain keep betting out. I lean towards the latter but it's close. KK is possible (call down), as is AA or anything else foe might feel like hammering with (call down), but that action would be very believable if foe had a low run like 4567 (push).

nh