Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other "big" hands??

[joewatch]

Should I have folded my AAxxss preflop?

$200 PL Omaha 9-handed
Seat 1: MP3 ( $221.05 )
Seat 2: CO ( $197 )
Seat 3: Button ( $43.25 )
Seat 4: SB ( $72 )
Seat 5: BB ( $140.45 )
Seat 6: UTG ( $204.30 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $200 )
Seat 10: MP1 ( $252.35 )
Seat 9: MP2 ( $194 )
Seat 2: MP3 ( $197 )

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
UTG folds, Hero calls [$2], MP1 calls [$2], MP2 calls [$2], MP3 raises [$8], CO folds, button calls [$8], SB folds, BB calls [$6], Hero calls [$6], MP1 calls [$6], MP2 raises [$55], MP3 raises [$196], Button calls $35 (all-in), BB folds, Hero ???

I did call . . . results and analysis after I get a few comments.

[ipp147]

Lets ignore the button cos hes short.

MP2s limp reraise smells like aces.
MP3 clearly doesn't care.

They can't both have aces though [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

If you are against a much better pair of aces (AAJTss) and something like 8765ss then you are in awful shape.

If he one also has junky aces and the other 8765ss you are in awful shape again.

Against QJT9s and 8765s you have about 30% equity.

Frankly I didn't realise how bad the equity would be.

If one is on something like KKxx though then your equity makes it an easy call.

At this level there are enough donks around to probably make this an +ev call. I think its close though.

[Peter Harris]

this hand looks a damn sight better at O8. I don't play too much omaha high, mind. If the 2 or 5 was a diamond so you were doublesuited, that helps a *tad*, or is your post a typo?

[Rolf Slotboom]

Hi Joewatch,

Of course you should not fold! You are in a game where no player has more than 130x the big blind, so it's not like a cash game that you see occasionally (especially in Britain) with extremely deep money. Yeah sure, if someone else has aces too, you don't like it, but this is far from certain. And the hand match-up by the first reply with the two rundown hands is nice, but it is exactly what it is: made up. The betting by no means suggests that this exact hand match-up is out there, because it is actually MUCH more likely you are up against big cards and / or the two players hold some of each other's cards. (And even in this made-up hand match-up, even if indeed you would win just 30% of the time, then folding would STILL be incorrect.) Just as likely is that you are up against QQAK and a second player with KKxx, making you a MASSIVE money favorite - meaning that folding the current best hand would be an absolute disaster.

All in all, in online (shallow-money) games, you should NEVER pass on the opportunity to go all-in with aces whenever that's possible. Yeah sure, occasionally you may be slightly wrong when some other player has aces too, but usually you will be VERY right, so there is no need to break your head figuring out if maybe, possibly, this could be one of these "slightly wrong" situations. Just stick it in and hope your hand wins. This is ESPECIALLY true when you have already invested money in the pot and / or there is dead money in the pot. As in this case, you have already put in $6 with a stack of just slightly more than $200, and there is also additional dead money in the pot. All of this means that in a 3-way pot, you would need to have MUCH LESS than 33.3% pot equity in a 3-way pot, and much less than 25% 4-way. Now, in this situation, going all-in with your aces is a no-brainer, especially now that one of your aces is suited. Any other decision than going all-in would be an awful play. Even if you were 90% certain that one of the others has aces too (especially the biggest stack), then folding would STILL be awful. And it should be clear that you can almost never be that certain, meaning that in my view folding is out of the question - period.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

Yeah, I don't think you could possibly fold here. Aces, double suited (you said they were double suited, but the suits showing on your hand aren't...I'll take that as a typo) are the kinds of hand you want to go to war with. Add to that you've got 3 to a wheel. Whoever doesn't go all in with this hand needs to stop playing PL Omaha.

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
Aces, double suited

[/ QUOTE ]

(ss = single suited)

[John Bedtelyon]

I don't see you folding, but I wouldn't hold my breath to win. I hate this position, I much prefer freerolling [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I wouldn't fold the aces.

JMB

[Big Dave D]

I rarely disagree with Rolf...but this is one of those times. Very very few players online will play as the AA suspect does here and NOT have AA. It will only be a maniac/tilter who would, and you should have a view of that from prior play.

TO say NEVER to pass AA online is not quite true. In about 40k hands or so I've passed it once, and then it was very marginal and probably a mistake. What is true is that you are never going to be making a huge error by always calling. What is also true is that you may be only marginally in a good spot, if at all, and do you intend to pursue all 1% edges for all your stack?

For an example and some debate on this, check out here

[boscoboy]

this is one of those hands i'm willing to go broke with

- with all this action i gotta believe AA KK and plenty of other high cards are in play (effectively cancelling the other hands out) - i think we have value with the low straight possiblities as well, figuring if 8 people like their hands preflop the 3s and 4s must be in the deck

[joewatch]

http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?p...mp;hand=141283

Here's the ugly truth:

pokenum -o kc kh 6h qs - tc 8h jd 3d - 2h 5h ad ah - 9c ac as 3s
Omaha Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kc Kh 6h 96162 25.51 280734 74.47 96 0.03 0.255
Tc Jd 3d 8h 129295 34.30 247601 65.68 96 0.03 0.343
As 3s Ac 9c 76791 20.37 271362 71.98 28839 7.65 0.242
Ad Ah 5h 2h 45809 12.15 302344 80.20 28839 7.65 0.160

I was a huge dog to the field, not even close to 25% equity in a 4-way pot. Even the kings are a favorite over me, and the yucky wrap hand had the biggest equity, and was the eventual winner.