a common turn decision

[meow_meow]

Situation that comes up quite often:

you raise preflop with AA-JJ, get one or two callers and one of the blinds comes along - 3-4 to the flop.

Flop comes with a pair and no high card. Something like 885. Checked to you, you bet, get one caller from a blind position. Turn is a blank, checked to you.....
Read the villain as typical 5-10: not a tag, not a super lag or a super LP, just moderately LP 35/10 or so.

I always bet this. It's pretty much a wa/wb situation. My problem is that when I get cr'ed, I go into call down mode. Now I realize that I'll be putting in 2 more bets to win 7-8 bets, but against a non-tricky villain, are you good here more than 25% of the time?

Really, my question boils down to "can I fold an overpair to a check raise HU on the turn on a paired but otherwise unscary board?"
thanks.

[Nietzsche]

This percentage is closer to 20% as your two outer will get there about 5% of the time.

I think you do, especially with AA as sometimes this will be an overpair.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]

Really, my question boils down to "can I fold an overpair to a check raise HU on the turn on a paired but otherwise unscary board?"
thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely never. I've seen the most passive players bluff at paired flops with a turn checkraise. It's probably the most commonly bluffed at board.

[wonkadaddy]

agree. can't even consider folding. the turn raise could jsut as likely be a value move from a smaller pair putting u on overs.

[StellarWind]

I can't imagine folding 66 on an 8852 board. If I don't have the third flop card covered then I have a decision to make.