Did villain play this wrong, or did I?

Baloosh · #1 09-09-2005, 10:30 PM

Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (9.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

hemstock · #2 09-09-2005, 10:39 PM

Read depended. Looks like he was on a straight draw. He check-raised the flop and donked the turn and the river. If the A does not drop on the river and he still leads, I call his bet. But since you improved to trips, I guess a raise is fine. I think you played the hand nice IMO

#3 09-09-2005, 11:10 PM

I would cap the river. I put the villian on KQ. or am i just crazy?

numeri · #4 09-09-2005, 11:17 PM

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I put the villian on KQ. or am i just crazy?

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Don't put a villain on a single hand - you need to think of a range of hands. And what villain would play KQ this way anyway? Especially on the river.

tyler_cracker · #5 09-09-2005, 11:18 PM

I would go ahead and cap the river with the second nuts. If he turns over KT, well, that sucks. Other than that, this looks fine.

I don't understand villain's donkbet on the turn, unless he thinks you're overplaying AK or something. If he has a set or two pair, he should go to war now since you clearly like your hand. If he does have KT, i don't see what the donkbet accomplishes (except costing him yet another BB to see the river when you raise).

AngelicPenguin · #6 09-09-2005, 11:27 PM

I think I would cap this river. Only hand you are afraid of is KT and he played it oddly on the Turn if he had it. More likely its AQ.

J. Stew · #7 09-09-2005, 11:42 PM

If he's got AQ he's getting 8-1 on the turn and needs about 11-1 with about four outs assuming he thinks you have an overpair. If he's got K10o he's getting the odds to call the turn. His river play looks like an aggressive AQ, or K10. He can only have AQ three ways and can have K10 16 ways but I think he would have capped the flop with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so he's got 15 ways to beat you, while you beat 3. It costs you one to win 14 on the river and you're good 1 in 5 times assuming he plays AQ and K10 the same way here so a call is +ev.

milesdyson · #8 09-09-2005, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he's got AQ he's getting 8-1 on the turn and needs about 11-1 with about four outs assuming he thinks you have an overpair. If he's got K10o he's getting the odds to call the turn. His river play looks like an aggressive AQ, or K10. He can only have AQ three ways and can have K10 16 ways but I think he would have capped the flop with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so he's got 15 ways to beat you, while you beat 3. It costs you one to win 14 on the river and you're good 1 in 5 times assuming he plays AQ and K10 the same way here so a call is +ev.

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you are taking into account villain's flop play, which is good, but you're completely ignoring that he led the turn after being 3-bet on the flop. this just doesn't happen very often against someone with KT, so i think the chance given to him having KT should be heavily discounted.

J. Stew · #9 09-10-2005, 12:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's got AQ he's getting 8-1 on the turn and needs about 11-1 with about four outs assuming he thinks you have an overpair. If he's got K10o he's getting the odds to call the turn. His river play looks like an aggressive AQ, or K10. He can only have AQ three ways and can have K10 16 ways but I think he would have capped the flop with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so he's got 15 ways to beat you, while you beat 3. It costs you one to win 14 on the river and you're good 1 in 5 times assuming he plays AQ and K10 the same way here so a call is +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]
you are taking into account villain's flop play, which is good, but you're completely ignoring that he led the turn after being 3-bet on the flop. this just doesn't happen very often against someone with KT, so i think the chance given to him having KT should be heavily discounted.

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I ruled out the sets and QJ cause of his river play so I only see AQ and K10 as likely hands given the way he played. Yeah you're right about the turn bet. So if there's a 70% chance he's got AQ, a 20% chance he's got K10, and a 10% chance he's zzzzed with two pair or something, then (.7*14)+(.2*-1)+(.1*14)= +11 If that's right shouldn't he be capping or am I leaving something out?

BatsShadow · #10 09-10-2005, 12:25 AM

Grunching:

Cap the river. Otherwise, I think I like it.