Pocket 2's ITM with even stacks

[AliasMrJones]

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ICM says this is a push with any 2 cards, even if BB has loose calling standards

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Well this is my point - ICM says that pushing is better than folding here with any 2. My deeper question is what about calling? What about min raising? What about 3x raising? These all have +/- $ev depending on cirumstances. If I can steal the blinds 80% of the time with a 3x raise and cut my chance of busting out very significantly then it is likely a better play.

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The problem here is that you have significant equity against many hands that will push against you when you call/min-bet or min-raise. 3xBB raise and then fold is just out of the question with less than 10xBB.

When you don't push, you're leaving open the door for Ax, Kx , Qx, Jx hands against which you will play very well to push you off your hand stealing the equity you had. That's not a good thing. A push eliminates that option. You aren't folding if your chips are in the middle. It also lets BB know the situation. Not, I think I should steal the blinds here so I'll min-raise so I can fold and still be in it, but you're playing for all your chips (or almost all) buddy. Do you want to do that right now?

Basically, you don't have enough chips to mess around with limping or min- or 3xBB raises and then folding. It costs you too much of your stack. You also don't want to be pushed off your hand because you have too much equity. Your fold equity here is excellent and when you're called you're often ahead. Hence - Pooooosh.

[rvg72]

Well it is a $22 but he was a good player - very tight and aggressive otherwise this would be much clearer to me. That is why I think a small raise may have been better here because he would have noticed that I don't play that way and he would realize that going to the flop could cost him a lot of chips if I was slow playing or even not and just happened to hit something.

I want to calculate the ICM on this based on a min raise but of course to do that I need some numbers. Do you think the following are reasonable keeping in mind that he was a solid player, I had not min raised the entire game and played pretty well if I may say so and also consider the fairly even stack sizes?

Fold 70%
Reraise All-In 15% in which case I would fold
Call 15% - I will break this result down further giving the edge to him.

I want to make the "Min Raise ICM Calculation" as accurate as possible to make this a fair comparison. Given the circumstances I think those numbers are pretty close but anyone feel free to comment.

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Dude, it's a 22. Your opponent is not thinking in as linear a pattern as we do, and he will not just push over the top or fold. If you min-raise he'll probably flat call. Now you're playing an underpair out of position.

PPPPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHHH

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[rvg72]

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Your fold equity here is excellent and when you're called you're often ahead. Hence - Pooooosh.

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You are probably correct but I think it would be interesting to go through the scenario and apply some math. Could you comment on my %'s in the last post. Remember, I'm not talking about how YOU (or most 2+2ers) would play against someone who minraised, I'm talking about your typical tight, aggressive $22 player.

Thanks,

rvg

[Jakob]

I would push instantly!

[rvg72]

Well figuring out All-In and Fold ICM's is pretty easy... putting him on 66+,AT+,KQ+ which I would think is accurate makes it:

FOLD: $66.41
PUSH: $68.05

I'll wait until I have some feedback on the %'s for Fold / Call / Push before I go through the work to determine min raise $EV.

Just to be very clear, I always push this and lots of other hands in this position - I'm just wondering if there is a 3rd option be that call / min raise or 3x raise that is more +ev in certain situations. For example, I would bet that min raising with AA is clearly a better play then going all-in in this same situation since you are much more likely to extract more than just the blinds.

rvg

[rvg72]

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Well figuring out All-In and Fold ICM's is pretty easy... putting him on 66+,AT+,KQ+ which I would think is accurate makes it:

FOLD: $66.41
PUSH: $68.05



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Well I went with my original numbers and it is a push although it is closer than you would expect and, if you feel that you are a better player than the other two, then it might even surpass the push $EV since you are much more likely to still be playing and thus be able to take advantage of other +$ev situations.

Here is the breakdown I used:

70% he folds and you have $69.32
15% he reraises and you fold and have $64.57
15% he calls

out of that 15%
1% you go all-in because you hit something and he beats you $0.00
2% he goes all-in and you call beating him $87.95
5% you place a half pot sized bet and he folds $74.60
7% you place a half pot sized bet and he reraises all in and you fold $56.79

Total it all up and you get about $67.67 - not that much lower but enough to make Pushing the better play.

Does anyone besides me think that this is interesting and deserves more analysis?

rvg

[networkman]

I doubt very much a mini raise induces a fold %70 of the time here. A good player will come over the top of your mini raise a lot of the time.

Say you miniraise, he calls, flop comes down xxx, now what? What does he have? Damned if I know. Do you bet or give him free cards? If you bet you've stuck so much in the pot now and havnt used your main weapon, FE...

Of course, when you're in the game you pick up loads more info than just a hand history and description so I would never say never.

In this example I would push.

[The once and future king]

In one sense your thoughts are good. The only problem is that you are illustrating them with a hand that can only be played one way in this situation (pooooosh). If you play a flop it is gaurenteed that either you hit trips or 3 overcards fall on the flop. Bottom line is you want to avoid playing a flop at all costs so pushing is the only way to make sure you dont.

min raise and play a bigger pot OOP?

Or make a +EV push preflop?

OCW