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#12
07-01-2005, 05:30 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing. Next question? [/ QUOTE ] With a poster and 2 callers already in, and a read on the table as typically LP... you think this is a -EV call? [/ QUOTE ] Three callers and a poster yet to play. 
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#13
07-01-2005, 05:32 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
With 6 players on the flop, you don't think I have at least a 16.67% equity? They all checked, and the pre-flop raiser is the only guy who made, what could very well be, a continuation bet. [/ QUOTE ] Nope, all except your trip outs are tainted.
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#14
07-01-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
With 6 players on the flop, you don't think I have at least a 16.67% equity? They all checked, and the pre-flop raiser is the only guy who made, what could very well be, a continuation bet. [/ QUOTE ] You really only had 4 callers you could count on, no? Your raise made it 2 bets to the CO.
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#15
07-01-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
Ugh. I think the limp preflop is ok, as is the call of the raise, but I'm not in love with it, either.
The flop raise is spew. What did you think you were accomplishing with that? I also don't like the turn and river bets. If you insist on seeing a showdown with bottom pair, no kicker on a coordinated board where none of your redraws is to the nuts (or even near-nuts), you should be trying to do it as cheaply as possible. I know, I know, maximize chance of winning the pot, blah blah, but you're not going to drive out overcards or anything else once you're 6 players to the flop in a raised pot.
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#16
07-01-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve.
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#17
07-01-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
I think you are worried about getting value for your hand on the flop which is where (imho) the mistake lies. Bottom pair no kicker, big pot, draw heavy board. Many cards falling on the turn and river that hurt you. If you really want to increase your chance of winning, bet into the pf raiser and hope he raises to protect the hand (not that I see anyone folding here with any sort of pair or draw but people make bad folds all the time just as much as they make bad calls).
Since the pot is so big, I would call the flop bet and hope you improve. I definitely check the river through. I think you'd only be called by a better hand.
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#18
07-01-2005, 05:47 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
I know, I know, maximize chance of winning the pot, blah blah, but you're not going to drive out overcards or anything else once you're 6 players to the flop in a raised pot. [/ QUOTE ] I was doing exactly what you said -- trying to maximize my chances in a big pot. I think that it's significant that, in the end, I was only called on the river bet by a single person. The chance to win that pot isn't worth 2BB at the minimum? Certainly, and perhaps I should have stated this at the beginning, in the face of any sort of resistance or play-back, I was going into check/call mode at best, and folding if I had to overcall.
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#19
07-01-2005, 05:48 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve. [/ QUOTE ] I think, in a raised pot like this, some people will find any excuse to call a single bet on the river. Ace high, King high. Hell even "JACK HIGH!" [/elix powers]
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#20
07-01-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: River = chip-spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve. [/ QUOTE ] I think, in a raised pot like this, some people will find any excuse to call a single bet on the river. Ace high, King high. Hell even "JACK HIGH!" [/elix powers] [/ QUOTE ] Occasionally idiots do this yes, but certainly not anywhere close to often enough to make this a profitable bet. For the bet to be profitable, a worse hand is going to have to call you around 55% of the time or more. Not happening.
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