5-10 NL AA hand facing an overbet

[AdamBragar]

I'm still going through a down streak and I'm starting to more hands that used to be "standard" for me. Here's one from last night.

5-10 NL online.

I have 1k and am in the CO with black aces. MP2 limps in (has ~900). MP2 has a preflop raise percentage of around 1 percent but has a VPIP of around 50 percent. Mainly a calling station, but has shown some agression post flop. Haven't seen anything tricky from MP2 yet.

MP2 limps, I raise to 45, MP2 calls.

Two to the flop

Pot: 105ish.
Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP2 bets out 150. I....?

[gomberg]

man, that's a tough spot. a TJs board has soooo many draws to it. Have you seen this player play a draw this aggressively? If you feel you're beat, you can fold here and wait for a better spot. The problem is, you're probably a coinflip unless he has an AJ or QQ type hand. If you think you can call here and get information on the turn, that's an option.

You almost have to decide how committed you are to your overpair now. On a board like this against an aggro potsflop opponent, I'm going to usually raise the flop big and get it all-in. Also, what does he think of your play?

[ShortySaurus]

call....min raise turn and fold to raise....if he calls turn, check behind on river....

[beta1607]

min-raising the turn pot commits the hero. If you are going to raise it has to be on the flop.

[gomberg]

that's a pretty bad line considering stack / bet sizes. Post some reasons for your suggested line - that's the only way to get better and see if you're thinking about situations in the right way.

[ShortySaurus]

didn't see stack sizes--yes raise flop and go from there...if he raises its an easy fold...if he calls do you suggest hero check behind on turn? If so and he bets a good amount on river do you fold? This is definitely a tough spot. I think you have the best hand though as he can easily do this with AJ, QQ, JK, JQ....hope it worked out well for you

[ShortySaurus]

in fact, i think calling is a fine line....and folding to another huge bet on the turn....if he checks to you on turn--would you bet this and check behind on river? would you check behind on turn and check/call river?

[AdamBragar]

Ok, I'll give some insight to what I was thinking here.

I was very confused. I was almost certain this type of player isn't going to bet a draw this strongly, unless he held KQ diamonds. I felt 1010 and JJ and 10 J were possibilities. AJ, KJ, QJ seemed like possibilities too. Given the low PFR percentage, QQ also seemed to be a possibility. Whatever the hand was, my opponent seemed to want to protect from a very draw heavy board.

So, I felt like if a diamond or a 9 were scare cards for this person. I called the 150.

Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: 400ish

Villain bet out 200. I felt like this was weakness. But sometimes I can confuse weakness and strength. The flop bet really didn't seem like a draw, so I assumed I was either way ahead or way behind. I called.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: 800

After the river, the player took a long time to think (or possibly was changing channels on the tv, going to the bathroom, ect...) and finally checked. I checked.

Comments now?

[aggie]

well played! I pretty much like your reasoning here. ONce he checks a total blank on the river i wonder if going all in would be a decent play? It seems like you are ahead

[gomberg]

Well, from his perspective, he should put you AdKd, AdQd, or QQ-AA. It seems like he's afraid of not being able to push you off your overpair, so he probably has QQ - but I don't know if I like a bet here since he should know exactly what you have and it may be hard for him to make a mistake. The only way he calls is if he has QQ or AJ and puts you on a missed monster AdKd type draw. seems like too much of a parlay for me... if he calls you he probably has TJ, TT, or JJ. I like the check.