KK faces turn check raise against TAG

[Yads]

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Easy fold.

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With a pot this big, you have to be 89.6% (17.25-2) sure that you're beat to make this a good fold. I'm virtually never 90% sure of anything in poker.

There are a number of hands he could be raising the turn that are consistent with his play so far. QQ,JJ,TT (especially with a club), and any A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I'm pretty sure you're beat, but I'm not 90% sure.

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This was my reasoning, I was planning on calling any non club river.

[Evan]

I'm kinda pissed because I just found out I have a test on Monday, and your sarcasm isn't helping, so I won't sugar-coat this.

Suggesting that you shouldn't bet an overpair on the turn because a draw completed is absurd. You still likely have the best hand, you're opponents do not always have the hand that just drew out on yours. If you don't understand this, than you're going to benefit way more from thinking about it rather than having me spoon feed it to you. I already told you that your suggestion was wrong; if you're not willing to put in any effort of your own to consider why that might be than I don't really care whether you figure it out or not.

If I suggested something crazy like folding kings preflop, then I could understand a snide remark asking me what the hell I was thinking--but it was a ridiculous response to proposing a value bet with kings on a 9 high board.

[Chris Dow]

Evan is completely right here. An appropriate comment to the idea of checking those kings behind on the turn here is definitely, absurd.

[Megenoita]

Evan may be completely right, but the request for him to relay reasoning is completely understandable. If there is one thing this forum lacks (besides a good search engine), it's properly qualified reasoning.

I'm curious as to what everyone thinks the hand range of Villain is. At first glance, I thought AQc-ATc, KQc-KTc, 99, 88, lower possibility TT, then JJ, with the most distant QQ. I don't see how a TAG doesn't cap PF with QQ. I'm sure I'm wrong about this range, but there's no way to learn if I don't try. Thoughts guys? Evan?

M

[Evan]

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Evan?

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Your range of hands for him is too narrow.

[Megenoita]

k...what else does a TAG have that he raises w/ PF, doesn't cap when back to him reraised, c/r the flop against a PF capper, and c/r the turn against a flop 3-bettor?

M

[Evan]

Oh, sorry. I thought we were on the flop, I'm retarded.

[Evan]

He could also have JTs, which you're also drawing dead to.

[damaniac]

With the flop play, it really looks like the villain is pumping a strong draw, assuming they are an intelligent TAG. I certainly think his range of PF raising hands is wide, esp if the limpers are weak. But after that flop play and the turn check-raise, I don't really see what other hands he'd play like that (other than a flush/straight), unless he is tricky/bluff-happy.

[Megenoita]

I can buy JTs...I can see the raise PF if he sees weak limpers. I just can't bring myself to see the turn c/r with a single hand that we beat aside from perhaps QQ, and I would give that hand 3-5% (?) probability, consequently making a note on Villain. Any draw would do much better to call the turn and raise the river if they hit. I don't think any draw, no matter how strong it is (I don't see a 50%+ draw here), that wants to be 3-bet for the 3rd time this hand while behind.

M