Flush draw on flop

[VTDuffman]

I'm going to have to echo the "easy raise" sentiment here. the chances of you being beaten by a better flush here are pretty slim, made moreso by the fact that there's only 2 other people in the hand. The opportunity for the free card on the turn, or even taking the hand down UI on a turn semi-bluff is much more valuable than the risk of being beatn by a bigger flush.

[BradleyT]

Even knocking one player out often doesn't do you much good.

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Qs 2s Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 6s 263 29.13 640 70.87 0 0.00 0.291
3s Qh 438 48.50 465 51.50 0 0.00 0.485
Ks 9h 202 22.37 701 77.63 0 0.00 0.224

Say you knock K9 out by raising.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 2s Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 6s 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
3s Qh 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

It costs you 1 sb to gain 4% more equity of a 5sb pot. Your villian gains over 100% of the raise equity. He calls 1sb for an 18% equity increase of a 6sb pot.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[AngelicPenguin]

Where do you get these numbers from? Very interesting info there.

[Entity]

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[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Droolie,

If the table is really passive, how often will they bet the turn? How often are they betting made hands vs. drawing hands?

If they will bet the turn and the river the majority of the time, your relative position to the bettor (having EP trapped) leaves you in a great place to extract bets later in the hand. This needs to be considered in an analysis of a hand where you aren't gaining equity if anyone folds to your raise on the flop.

This isn't nearly as easy of a raise as everyone is making it out to be.

[KingOtter]

I said call. With another limper/caller I'd definitely raise.

KO

[cowboyzfan]

[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. 35 percent is if you have the nut flush draw, SSH has an example of this. But in the book the draw is to the nut flush, with over cards.

Unless I am missing something, with 30 - 32 percent equity you are not even getting "your fair share" of the equity with two opponents on future bets. Maybe a free card chance makes the raise preferable in the end though.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. 35 percent is if you have the nut flush draw, SSH has an example of this. But in the book the draw is to the nut flush, with over cards.

Unless I am missing something, with 30 - 32 percent equity you are not even getting "your fair share" of the equity with two opponents on future bets. Maybe a free card makes the raise preferable in the end though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the flush over flush that is a concern for your equity as much as the range of outs your opponent's hands can have.

Rob

[pokerrookie]

Free card or winning UI on a turn semibluff? Can't have it both ways. If you are raising for a free card, then do it. But don't expect to win UI with this hand. In other words, you can't bet again on the turn if the spade doesn't come. If the other players caught any piece of the flop, middle or low pair, you are getting called. You will not win this unimproved 95% of the time at .5/1 or 1/2. Thus, your raise for a free card would have been a waste of a bet. Especially if they are even half aware of the free play for flush draw concept. Call flop, call turn = 1.5 BB
raise flop, semibluff turn = 2 BB (and as I see it, no better chance for winning). Again, if you had any overcard, then I say easy raise.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought others would call behind as it was a loose passive table.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the reason you try for the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Droolie,

If the table is really passive, how often will they bet the turn? How often are they betting made hands vs. drawing hands?

If they will bet the turn and the river the majority of the time, your relative position to the bettor (having EP trapped) leaves you in a great place to extract bets later in the hand. This needs to be considered in an analysis of a hand where you aren't gaining equity if anyone folds to your raise on the flop.

This isn't nearly as easy of a raise as everyone is making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you leaning towards a call here? Situations come up like this all the time and I always play them the same way versus passive opponents. You're right that calling isn't that bad but I still think raising is better against passive opponents and it's something I'll do every time, which for me is an easy raise.

In a three way pot I expect the BB to lead the turn a high % of the time if we just call the flop. The pot is small and if we have to face 2 cold on the turn we probably don't have the odds to see the river. When we raise the flop we disguise the flush draw nicely and our expectation goes up when we hit and one of the villians improves or has a set or something. This I believe winds up being a wash when we might have gotten more bets by waking up on the turn or river when we make our flush. We also garauntee ourselves odds to see this through to the river. I'm not terribly concerned with slight edges or slight disadvantages in equity as this is not a flop pump but a free card play. The fact that's it's close to even is what is important.