#11
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
44 may be a good heads-up hand against a random hand, but it does pretty poorly against the range of hands that are likely to call you (say AK-AT, KQ, and AA-88). I would rather push with a hand like KQ or even QJ in this spot; you're less likely to be dominated, not least because the fact that you're holding two face cards reduces the chances your opponents also are.
So I think I fold 44 here. |
#12
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
Best case you will be called by overcards and have about a 50/50 shot; worst case you run into a pair and are almost certainly eliminated. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. Best case is the whole table calls you and you flop quads. 2nd best case is they all fold. Worst case is you get called by an overpair and don't catch up. |
#13
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
So personally, I push all-in and hope the coin toss goes my way. [/ QUOTE ] It's not a coin toss though. He's going to get 3-5 callers depending on who's in the blinds and how good the short stacks' hands are. Post flop it's going to go like this: Flop: Check-check-check Turn: Check-check-check River: Check-check-check Overcards WILL fall, so you'll likely have to dodge 6 cards falling. Of course, if the 4 falls, then you're in good shape. |
#14
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
He's going to get 3-5 callers depending on who's in the blinds and how good the short stacks' hands are. [/ QUOTE ] I completely agree that if he anticipates more than even one caller he's in bad situation and cannot contemplate the all-in push. If my read on the table were the same (3-5 callers) i'd just fold too, and hopefully wait for a better opportunity to double up. |
#15
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
Not that it changes much- but I just don't see 3-5 people calling this. Both of the people around 40K would proably want to get out of the way, because if they lose and the Hero wins, they have basically switched positions, and would be the short stack.
So your down to the 3 big stacks. As they are probably all trying to avoid each other, I think the first one to call plays and the others fold. 36K in chips is a huge swing for any of these players still - so I think your up agaist 1 caller and now it's about 50/50. Your short stack so not a bad place to push- you'll get better but also get a lot worse. |
#16
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never.
If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards. --Greg |
#17
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
If my read on the table were the same (3-5 callers) i'd just fold too, and hopefully wait for a better opportunity to double up. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm...can anyone else see how absurd this statement is? |
#18
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never. If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards. --Greg [/ QUOTE ] This is a satellite, 5 winners take home the same prize. The stacks are like this: Chip Leader has $115k, 2 & 3 have $65k, 4 & 5 have 40k, and hero bringing up the rear with 18k. Why wouldn't the leader, 2 and 3 just call the 18K and check it down to give themselves a better chance at winning. There are no points for coming in 1st place here. The only players that should think about folding are the 4th and 5th chip stacks here. |
#19
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
Not that it changes much- but I just don't see 3-5 people calling this. So your down to the 3 big stacks. As they are probably all trying to avoid each other, I think the first one to call plays and the others fold. 36K in chips is a huge swing for any of these players still - so I think your up agaist 1 caller and now it's about 50/50. Your short stack so not a bad place to push- you'll get better but also get a lot worse. [/ QUOTE ] The 3 big stacks all know that there is only one goal left. Eliminate 1 player. For 18K, why wouldn't they all call and check it down? Are they really that afraid of quadrupling up our hero? |
#20
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Re: final six and top five get a seat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I estimate the chances of getting 3-5 callers here at slightly less than...never. If you get one caller, the rest will fold unless they have AA/KK. If you get one caller and another player comes in, all the rest will fold without looking at their cards. --Greg [/ QUOTE ] This is a satellite, 5 winners take home the same prize. The stacks are like this: Chip Leader has $115k, 2 & 3 have $65k, 4 & 5 have 40k, and hero bringing up the rear with 18k. Why wouldn't the leader, 2 and 3 just call the 18K and check it down to give themselves a better chance at winning. There are no points for coming in 1st place here. The only players that should think about folding are the 4th and 5th chip stacks here. [/ QUOTE ] Because the cost of making a mistake or losing a flip is huge -- either 2nd stack ends up as 4-way tie for shortstack if they lose, whereas if someone else calls ahead of you, you have zero risk and maybe a coinflip shot at shortstack being eliminated. Anyone calling is essentially sharing the benefit of eliminating the shortstack with 5 other players, but taking on the risk of eliminating him all on their own. I take my previous comment back...it could very well happen that several would call, but it seems terrible play by anyone after 1st caller. Greg |
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