15-30 AQ hand...

[Noo Yawk]

Hi All. 15-30 pretty loose passive game. 2 weak limpers to me, I raise with AQo, both blinds call.

Flop come A-4-7 rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, BB raises, 1 caller in between. I 3 bet, he caps, MP calls.

The BB is a pretty loose player but not overly aggressive. The MP is a calling station that no doubt has a weak ace he won't throw away.

The Turn is a 4(A-4-7). BB bets, MP calls.
What's your play and is this hand even interesting? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[steveyz]

BB probably has 77 or A7 or A4. I'd still call it down though.

[1800GAMBLER]

11% of the time you need the best hand on the flop to at least breakeven.

The math of how to get all that is below.

I'm not including 56, even though it's a very likely hand, most boards when this happens to me don't contain an obvious draw and don't pair on the turn, so turn card was a 2. I should also discount 47 since it's less likely, but i'm lazy.

Hands/Combinations/Outs against

47 - 9 - 5
A7 - 6 - 3
A4 - 6 - 3

So 12 times you have 3 outs, and 9 times you have 5, meaning 4:3 that it's 3 outs VS 5. Meaning your outs avg at, (12+15)/7 = an avg of 3.8 outs, meaning you need roughly, 11:1 in effective odds to call down. Hence you are short.

So you need to be good x% of the time, and in that x% you'll win the pot plus the calling down 2BB, which is a total of 8BBs.

8% (3.8 outs) of the time you win by improvement, (100 - x% - 8%) lose, x% of the time you win by having the best hand.

The win amount must equal the loss amount to breakeven:

8% * 9BB (6bb pot + 3bb in implied odds) + x% * 8BBs = (92 - x) * 2BBs. Solving that, 72 + 8x = 184 - 2x => x = 11.2%

... of the time you need the best hand on the flop to at least breakeven, i'd expect on party to have the best hand 4:1, hence the profit in calling down.

Wow that was long. P.S. There's more of this in Ed's book that's coming out (i think), so if you are lost through all of that, it's probably a good idea to order it.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually call down but i'm going to check that's correct.

HU on the turn after you call you'll be getting 6:1, on the turn it's going to cost to 2BBs more to call down meaning 4:1 at showdown. Ok

I'm not including 56, even though it's a very likely hand, most boards when this happens to me don't contain an obvious draw and don't pair on the turn, so turn card was a 2. I should also discount 47 since it's less likely, but i'm lazy.

Hands/Combinations/Outs against

47 - 9 - 5
A7 - 6 - 3
A4 - 6 - 3

So 12 times you have 3 outs, and 9 times you have 5, meaning 4:3 that it's 3 outs VS 5. Meaning your outs avg at, (12+15)/7 = an avg of 3.8 outs, meaning you need roughly, 11:1 in effective odds to call down. Hence you are short.

So you need to be good x% of the time, and in that x% you'll win the pot plus the calling down 2BB, which is a total of 8BBs.

8% (3.8 outs) of the time you win by improvement, (100 - x% - 8%) lose, x% of the time you win by having the best hand.

The win amount must equal the loss amount to breakeven:

8% * 9BB (6bb pot + 3bb in implied odds) + x% * 8BBs = (92 - x) * 2BBs. Solving that, 72 + 8x = 184 - 2x => x = 11.2%

11% of the time you need the best hand on the flop to at least breakeven, i'd expect on party to have the best hand 4:1, hence the profit in calling down.

Wow that was long. P.S. There's more of this in Ed's book that's coming out (i think), so if you are lost through all of that, it's probably a good idea to order it.

[/ QUOTE ]

good analysis..

my play: call turn and call river, and go to sleep.

[1800GAMBLER]

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] even though it is a somewhat obvious play i like to make sure i'm not leaking money from doing it, some are a lot closer and eventually all that math ^ will be able to be done in my head at the table.

[Ed S.]

Raise one more time and see what happens. He already may have the boat. I say its possible he may have an Ace with a decent kicker or 77 at this point. But again, raise the turn and see how things developes.

If he is not overly aggressive than you can probably safely put him on the 77s for a set and boat on turn since he was giving you lots of flop action. That would be my rationale



But sometimes just check and calling may be better. I don't know. I've got to get my mind back into the poker frame of mind since I've been away for so long in this field of thought.


Ed S.

[1800GAMBLER]

A raise has no value. You just aren't winning nearly enough of the time to make it worthwhile and for the same price i'd much much rather just take it to showdown. You also let him drop when he's totally bluffing.

[ike]

Aren't you leaving out a bunch of very reasonable hands? Specifically AK, 77, and 44.

[1800GAMBLER]

I included AK at first. I was going to include that and 47 and discount them both to about 30% because 47 is unlikely to call preflop and AK is likely to reraise, yet sometimes they don't. Adding AK doesn't really change much, if anything at all really.

If i were to add 44 77 that would change it but i very much doubt they'd play the flop so fast, i just never see it, it's always the turn, so they'd have to be discounted to about 10% chance, which wouldn't change much at all again.