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#13
12-17-2005, 11:14 PM
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Re: Blind Battles: Hand #8182910291129.3
Why not semibluff the turn? Having checked I guess the call is OK. The one-card OESD on a paired board isn't enough effective outs IMO, but you get a little extra EV from checkfolding the river and winning either unimproved or with a spiked pair.
Checkfold the river. The key point is that it is pretty clear to value bet any king, jack, or straight after you check the turn and river. With so many hands value betting the occasional bluff will be drowned out. There won't be one bluff for every six value bets even if he is bluffing most of his worse hands. Of course most of his worse hands are tens or underpairs and he's not apt to bluff those anyway. 
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#14
12-17-2005, 11:23 PM
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Re: Blind Battles: Hand #8182910291129.3
tough one. on one hand, i don't think he's going to value bet very well here, but on the other i dont see him bluffing much. maybe he had a small pair and will bluff. i guess you can call just because it's a tough board to value bet there. your play is completely in line with Ax going for a donk river c/r
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#15
12-18-2005, 02:57 AM
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Re: Blind Battles: Hand #8182910291129.3
I think I would have followed through on the turn since the straight draw gives me enough outs I'm calling anyway. If he raises the turn, that bites, but at least you know you can fold UI on the river or go for a c/r if you hit your straight.
The villian's turn bet doesn't mean much given many aggressive players will bet with air when it's checked to them in an attempt to pick up the pot. The river is hard. I wouldn't be suprised if he bluffs 1/6th of the time, making a check/call worthwhile, simply because I probably bluff 1/6th of the time when the original leader showed aggression and then let the lead go. I think bet/fold will net you less than check/call because given the board I see him calling a smaller range of hands than he'll bet due to the chance he'll bluff.
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#16
12-18-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: Blind Battles: Hand #8182910291129.3
[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have followed through on the turn since the straight draw gives me enough outs I'm calling anyway. If he raises the turn, that bites, but at least you know you can fold UI on the river or go for a c/r if you hit your straight. [/ QUOTE ] I thought that against a guy with these stats, I was getting raised on the turn here very, very often. No?
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