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  #11  
Old 11-09-2005, 07:03 AM
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Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

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Except you don't, if nobody has anything then of course they will fold, whether or not you bet the flop or check and bet the river.

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Weak flushes, two pairs, and straights will fold to an EP bet on a flopped 3 flush 3 low; it's a scary board even for fish. In my experience people who will fold a flop will call a turn after the flop's been checked around, even if they don't hit. Plus, if you give 6 people a chance to hit a good hand or draw, they're going to hang around. As it is, the flop is very scary and most will fold to a bet.

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However you have to bet that flop, because it's the only way of getting lots of money in the pot if someone has A2 and a flush.

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If someone has A2 and a flush, you lose 1/2 - 2 BB out of them by not betting the flop, assuming all 6 players including the one with the A2 flush check it also. How much EV are you losing here? [censored] all. The chance to check raise multiple callers and trap money in the pot is also a big consideration here.

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The same applies for pot limit omaha/8, you must bet and hope someone has something.

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Pot limit is a different monkey, of course you bet it there, because you have to build a pot to get money in. This isn't the case here.

To give you an example of a stone nuts slowplay working, have a look at this (I rarely do this btw, but it's an excellent example of the principle at work):

$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Wednesday, November 09, 05:11:16 EDT 2005
Dealt to BadbeatPhil [ As 3s 7h Ad ]
VJT123 calls [$0.25].
Lridge folds.
starbuc48 folds.
sewith111 calls [$0.25].
buckatari folds.
maaspoort folds.
MtManVan folds.
sturgeon_nut folds.
BadbeatPhil calls [$0.15].
LeeLay checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Ac, 3h ]
BadbeatPhil checks.
LeeLay checks.
VJT123 checks.
sewith111 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
BadbeatPhil bets [$0.75].
LeeLay folds.
VJT123 calls [$0.75].
sewith111 raises [$1.50].
BadbeatPhil calls [$0.75].
VJT123 calls [$0.75].
** Dealing River ** [ Qs ]
BadbeatPhil bets [$5.25].
VJT123 folds.
sewith111 raises [$10.50].
BadbeatPhil is all-In.
sewith111 is all-In.
sewith111 shows [ 5s, Jc, 5d, Jh ] a full house, Fives full of threes.
BadbeatPhil shows [ As, 3s, 7h, Ad ] a full house, Aces full of threes.
BadbeatPhil wins $0.65 from side pot #1 with a full house, Aces full of threes.
BadbeatPhil wins $47.70 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of threes.
There was no qualifying low hand.

The very small EV I lost by giving a low draw a free card (they were calling anyway, but I mean the EV if they called and didn't hit), I made up multiple times by someone catching one of four outs on the turn, and paying me off. He felt safe; I hadn't raised preflop, I hadn't bet the flop. If some one has A3 in this spot the money is going in anyway, because they're going to raise later streets for me. If they don't, a free card is precisely what you want to give.

With 7 players in the hand such turns are expected, not rare.
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  #12  
Old 11-09-2005, 09:40 AM
jthegreat jthegreat is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 27
Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

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Weak flushes, two pairs, and straights will fold to an EP bet on a flopped 3 flush 3 low

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Probably, but they'll fold to a MP bet as well. You aren't going to trap people who aren't going to call a bet at all. It's obviously a great flop for you, but not one that's going to generate a whole lot of action. I lost a good bit of money for a while trying to slow-play flopped monsters. It's not worth it in most cases.
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  #13  
Old 11-09-2005, 10:58 AM
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Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

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To give you an example of a stone nuts slowplay working, have a look at this (I rarely do this btw, but it's an excellent example of the principle at work):

Dealt to BadbeatPhil [ As 3s 7h Ad ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Ac, 3h ]
BadbeatPhil checks.
LeeLay checks.
VJT123 checks.
sewith111 checks.

The very small EV I lost by giving a low draw a free card (they were calling anyway, but I mean the EV if they called and didn't hit), I made up multiple times by someone catching one of four outs on the turn, and paying me off.

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That's a horrid example for a hi/lo game, no? You gave a free card to low draws that if made are not likely to counterfeit. There were three opps left, you didn't expect one of them to have a low draw? You offered them half or your pot and didn't charge a nickle. You got quite lucky.

On the other hand, for the original question - I don't think a check with the intent of raising is a bad play from an early position, but I doubt any play would've worked well here if they all folded to a single small bet on the flop.
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  #14  
Old 11-09-2005, 04:30 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

Benwood - I guess I'd slow play it.

I'd slow play it because I'd want as many customers as possible on the turn and river. I'd hope that somebody would have the ace-high flush, and if not, that somebody had a non-nut flush that might seem more valuable if nobody bet on the second betting round. And I'd hope that if nobody else already had the nut low that the current nut low would get counterfeited so that somebody who maybe held A5XY would make a wheel and think that was a good hand here. But mainly I'd hope the board would pair and an opponent would make a full house or quads - or even trips. Something! (I'd hope an opponent made something - anything).

On the other hand, when somebody does have the ace-high flush, or when somebody does have the nut low, you gain from that opponent by betting. Maybe even when an opponent has a king-high flush you gain by betting. I think (considering your hand) somebody else has the ace-high flush here about one time in three, and I think (considering your hand) somebody else has the nut low about two times in five. So nobody figures to have either of those only about two times in five. In other words, somebody is expected to have either the nut flush or tie you for the nut low about three times in five - more often than not. And somebody might chase (depending) without the ace-high flush or the nut low (as, for example, with the king-high flush or the second nut low).

So it seems a tough choice to me. I think you're more likely to get someone (who thinks he/she has flopped the nuts) to call your bet, or even raise, than not. However, if you don't bet, that person will likely bet for you, and anybody else who calls will be trapped. And if nobody bets, somebody who might otherwise fold might catch a card on the turn, or revalue their hand on the basis on nobody betting.

If you have some nitwit (maniac) sitting next to you who likes to raise your bets and who will bet if you don't, you don't want the possible double bet scaring away customers. Or even someone who is not a nitwit might raise your bet and knock everybody else out. Someone with also the nut low and an oblique draw for high (say two pair, bottom set, or a non-nut flush), and who put you on the nut low for your bet, might do well to try to limit the field. Lots of different possibilties here... I haven't thought this completely through...

Anyhow, although you might lose a bet, I think you stand to gain more by slow playing it. My first instinct was to slow play it, and after thinking it through a bit, I'm sticking with that.

Slow play it.

Buzz
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  #15  
Old 11-09-2005, 07:18 PM
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Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

[ QUOTE ]
That's a horrid example for a hi/lo game, no? You gave a free card to low draws that if made are not likely to counterfeit. There were three opps left, you didn't expect one of them to have a low draw? You offered them half or your pot and didn't charge a nickle. You got quite lucky.

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You can't just say "don't give free cards" without looking at the ev of doing so. Betting the flop is worth a couple of dimes more than not betting the flop here. But I give this up for even a 20-1 shot at someone catching a nice turn card where they'll pay me $5 or more by the river. The only way I make money on this hand vs low draws if they call flop and turn AND miss. Work out the percentages and you'll see the E.V. of betting the flop turns out to be quite insignificant. Keeping both in the hand and making them feel comfortable about their hand is worth far more imo.
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  #16  
Old 11-09-2005, 10:05 PM
benwood benwood is offline
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Posts: 90
Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

Thanks a lot for the comments, guys. Greatly appreciated. After considerarion, I like the check slightly better because(1)I want to see where the action comes from. I want to raise in a "trap" position, not a "shutout" position at this point. (2)If no one has enough to bet(if I check) or call(if I bet),I would rather check & leave them in there to get some action later.l Thanks again.
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