Thriller

[bernie]

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Why not bet the flop?

b

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Betting a king high flop w/this hand v.s a UTG+1 raise in the muck 20 game seems like spew against the majority of players... they either have a king, or JJ+ that they aren't going to lay down anyway...(well, maybe Chuck will fold queens here)

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

The only thing you're worried about is getting raised and no one is raising unless they have a pair of Ks beat. Though it may take a follow up bet on the turn to fold them.

Edit: If chuck raised preflop, meaning 'CW', I wouldn't have seen the flop with this hand.

b

[DeeJ]

i fold this pf. 64 isn't a great hand

1) anyway
2) against an UTG+1 raiser
3) suited with only 2 others in

where you got too, obviously, check-call. If it's 2 to you you might be stuffed but i'd grit my teeth and call. I think you're close to not being ok for pot odds in that situation.... (effective 8.5:2) with 13 outs, few clean, call it 11 outs you need 4.5:1 so with implied odds, v marginal

[catlover]

Preflop: fold. I know the suited connector is pretty but it just isn't good enough to play here.

Flop: definitely peel.

Turn: If you aren't going to c/r bluff with straight and flush draws, when will you ever make that play?

I disagree with the posters who say check and call is obvious. I think check raising is better.

Math problem -- how often does your c/r need to steal the pot to make it worth while? It depends on the frequency with which you will be reraised, and also the frequency with which you fold out one opponent but not both, so the answer is somewhat vague. But it will surely come out under 15% of the time -- and may even come out under 10%.

Basically, when you have a strong chance of drawing out, the EV loss when you don't succeed in stealing it is not that large. But the EV gain of a successful steal is still enormous. So go for it.

[DcifrThs]

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Math problem -- how often does your c/r need to steal the pot to make it worth while? It depends on the frequency with which you will be reraised, and also the frequency with which you fold out one opponent but not both, so the answer is somewhat vague. But it will surely come out under 15% of the time -- and may even come out under 10%.

Basically, when you have a strong chance of drawing out, the EV loss when you don't succeed in stealing it is not that large. But the EV gain of a successful steal is still enormous. So go for it.


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then do the math and report back w/ results, assumtions, methodology.

Barron

[bobbyi]

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Is flop peel really correct? You have a gutshot and backdoor draws and little else.

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I'm getting better than 8:1 immediate odds on the call. I'm closing the action. I have four outs to the nuts. I have a backdoor flush which is worth more than one out, so I have more than five outs total getting more than 8:1. The odds are there right now, not even counting my implieds. This is a straighforward peel.

[bobdibble]

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

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I think they will raise if they have a big K or AA, and probably knock out the HJ. So, rather than seeing the turn for 1 bet with an overlay from HJ, betting can end up causing you to pay 2 bets and loose the overlay from the HJ.

edit: note, I would bet this flop if there wasn't a pre-flop raiser.

[tansoku]

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then do the math and report back w/ results, assumtions, methodology.

Barron

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Here’s a stab at the math with a WAG at ranges:

Passive hand raising ranges pflop for UTG+1:
TT-AA, AJs+, AK, AQ,AJ, KQs,

HJ 3bets JJ-AA, AKs, AQs?
Cold calls: 55-TT, AT-AK, ATs, AJs, KQs, KQ, KJs, KJ?

Board: Ks 2c 3h Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.7339 % 26.73% 00.00% { 6h4h }
Hand 2: 35.0621 % 32.76% 02.30% { TT, AJs, KQs, QTs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.2039 % 35.91% 02.30% { TT-55, AJs-ATs, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

Call it 25% equity on the turn as and estimate.
Pot on the turn = 6.5SB + 3SB = 9.5/2 = 4.25 BB
Assume hero folds the river UI..

Hero check, intending to call:
If HJ raises 7.25:2 = Fold.
Otherwise Pot on the river is 7.25BB (counting hero’s turn call)
Assume 1 BB of implied odds on the river on average when hero improves, bets, and is called by at least 1 person.
So this line = spend 2BB to win 7.25BB.
.25 x 7.25 = +1.8BB
.75 x (-1) = -.75

Check/call = +1.05BB

Chk-raise turn:
Assume no 3bet, HJ calls.
River pot = 4.25 + 6 = 10.25BB
Same assumption as above (i.e. gain 1BB on river on average):
.25 x 9.25 = +2.3 BB
.75 x (-2) = -1.5

Chk/raise = +.8 BB

When 3bet, assume CO folds for 2:
River pot = 4.25 + 7 = 11.25.
.25 x (11.25 – 3) = +2.06BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25 BB

Chk-raise/3bet = -.19.

If CO calls the turn 3bet (or 3bets and UTG+1 Calls):
.25 x (13.25 – 3) = +2.6 BB
.75 x (-3) = -2.25BB
Chk-raise/3bet/CO calls = +.3 BB

So when 3bet, the 3rd player must call at least .3(x) = .2 = 66% to break even.

So, if never 3bet:
Chk-call is 1-.8 = +.2BB compared to chk-raising the turn.

So the chk-raise needs to fold both players enough to make up that .2-.3BB difference (assume .1BB loss for being 3bet).

F%(6.25) – 2(1-F%) = .3
8.25F% = 2.3
F% = 27%

You need to fold out both players something like 20-30% of the time to make chk-raising better than chk-calling If this is correct...

[bernie]

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Is it chip spewing if you're planning on calling a single bet anyways? Many will fold an underpair to the K. Look at the board: What else are they going to put you on?

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I think they will raise if they have a big K or AA, and probably knock out the HJ. So, rather than seeing the turn for 1 bet with an overlay from HJ, betting can end up causing you to pay 2 bets and loose the overlay from the HJ.

edit: note, I would bet this flop if there wasn't a pre-flop raiser.

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Keep in mind, I don't mind the check call on the flop. I also agree with betting the flop if there was no preflop raiser or if this was a LP open raiser I might take a stab.

In regards to the HJ, he may be gone on this flop anyways. He really has nothing to draw to. If he is staying, you may be looking at 2 bets coming back to you if you check it.

If you bet and get raised and the HJ folds, you will be getting 9-1 on your gutshot call alone. (though you do give up a bit 'effectively' for that call since you're paying 2 bets that round)

UTG isn't going to put you on the gutshot if you hit, so you're looking at collecting 4 (small)bets on the turn if you hit it. Possibly 6-8 bets if you're lucky enough that he has a set of KK.

That said, I still like check calling.

b