exactly how much do you trust your read?

[lerxst337]

Villian is your typical hyper aggro tag, 16.6/9.5/(infinity) through four orbits. He's UTG here, so even though he limps, I have him on reasonable cards. He may get out of line with his betting, but not with what he shows.

As for the hand, I initially raise to clear out inside draws, and call the 3-bet with the intention of raising the turn. Only KK and the straight beat me, so if I trust my read this is easy. So..., do I trust my read?


Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero ???

[adsman]

TJs would be a reasonable hand for this player to limp UTG.

He would most probably have reraised preflop with KK, but JTs is a possibility, 99 too (not that likely perhaps). And a small chance for a strangely played AK.

Cap the turn. If he does have the straight then good for him; at least you have ten outs. Unimproved I probably just call the river and bet/call if checked to.

The more I think about it, the more I actually believe he has the straight. But I still play it like I wrote above.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, the more I actually believe he has the straight. But I still play it like I wrote above.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you put him on a hand yet you act in a completely opposite way. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, the more I actually believe he has the straight. But I still play it like I wrote above.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you put him on a hand yet you act in a completely opposite way. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I put a guy on a hand I put a rather high probability on him having that hand, doesn't have to be 100%. There's still a chance he has 99, KQ or even AK. The chance of him having one of those hands instead together with our ten outs in the case he has the straight, and since the raise is a cap I still think the raise is okey.

[crunchy1]

I like your play so far. I was thinking that it would be nice to know this player's WSD%/W$SD - but after only 4 orbits I'm not sure that those stats are going to be that useful/accurate. The only hands that I can see giving us this much action from this player type who limped UTG are 99 and JT. This guy's not limping KK, AK, AQ, etc...

If he's got any decent hand reading skills he's not 3-betting you on the flop AND turn with 99. You've got odds to call the turn 3-bet and see the river - so call the turn. I also probably make a crying call on the river.

[@bsolute_luck]

odd that he would donk the flop with a made straight given position on the PFR and no flush draws.

is your question to fold the turn? we're getting 13-1, have tons of outs to fill up, and he might have a lower set. i call from here down.

[TomBrooks]

I'm going to go to call down mode on the turn. JTs seems most likely to me. 99 would be my second guess for this hand but who knows which it is. It could be KQo too. Actually, I think KQo is the most likely.

[BoxLiquid]

[ QUOTE ]
odd that he would donk the flop with a made straight given position on the PFR and no flush draws.


[/ QUOTE ]

After thinking about this I don't think he has the straight. If he's a TAG he's going to c/r this on the turn. Even 99 won't donk you, he'll c/r with 99 on the turn.

I think 2 pair makes more sense. Possibly even K9s?

[mosuavea]

[ QUOTE ]

I think 2 pair makes more sense. Possibly even K9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

KQo is much more likely, I really dont see someone with those stats limping K9s UTG