A Nice Turn Illustration of the Gap Concept

[W. Deranged]

Hey folks,

This is a hand I played from the Turning Stone 10/20 (where I've been running horribly... too many of the memorable hands I've played have involved folding the turn...).

For those of you who haven't heard of it, the Gap Concept is the Sklanskian idea that in an situation in poker, it takes a stronger hand to call/reraise when an opponent has already bet/raised in front of you than it does to bet/raise initially. It's a simple poker universal rule that actually holds up in most situations. It's often mentioned pre-flop (it's why we all fold AJ in MP to an EP raise). This hand I thought was a nice post-flop illustration of the idea. I think formerly I would have misplayed this hand.

Limper #3 is the important character in this hand. He's a classic loose-passive (Think like 45/5/.7). Often check-calls top pair and other hands in raised pots. Will bet once others have checked. Doesn't get fancy thought does like to slowplay; has check-raised turn and raised river with a couple of flopped monsters. Has yet to do anything that could be termed bluffing.

Deranged is on the button with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Pre-flop: Three limpers to Deranged who calls. Both blinds come along.

Flop (6 SB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Everybody and their mother checks.

Turn (3 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Four checks, Limper #3 bets, Deranged folds...

All comments welcome, though I doubt there's much interesting to talk about except the turn.

[W. Deranged]

I'm bumping my own hand because I went through and replied to too many threads so I squeezed my own post off page 1. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

Given the read this turn fold is very easy. What hands will he check the flop and bet the turn with? He would have betted the flop with QQ-55 and 4x (and if wouldn't bet the flop with them then he will not bet the turn).

At best we're up against another K, hoping to call down in a small pot for a split. Just as you say, there are few hands worse than ours that will bet and many possible better hands.

[lerxst337]

Ok, I'll bite. If your read is right, obviously you fold..., but...

This guy would never bet an ace or try to steal an orphan pot after it was checked to him twice? If he really is that passive, fine, but I don't know that many.

I think I would just call. He COULD have a 2 if he plays 45%. A raise accomplishes nothing, because the only card we fear otherwise is an ace on the river. Who knows, we may get an overcall.

I'm not criticizing your read..., but it is rather remarkable.

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who haven't heard of it, the Gap Concept is the Sklanskian idea that in an situation in poker, it takes a stronger hand to call/reraise when an opponent has already bet/raised in front of you than it does to bet/raise initially.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this still apply after all that checking. What I mean is, I know players are more tempted to bet when checked to twice, so can you really apply this principle.

I guess your read was that he is passive, so I am assuming you think he has a K with a better kicker? Maybe against a passive player I agree, but anyone else in that spot and I either call or raise.

thoughts?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'll bite. If your read is right, obviously you fold..., but...

This guy would never bet an ace or try to steal an orphan pot after it was checked to him twice? If he really is that passive, fine, but I don't know that many.

I think I would just call. He COULD have a 2 if he plays 45%. A raise accomplishes nothing, because the only card we fear otherwise is an ace on the river. Who knows, we may get an overcall.

I'm not criticizing your read..., but it is rather remarkable.

[/ QUOTE ]

The key parts about the hand are this:

1. The player is pretty passive and almost certainly is not "taking a shot at this pot." He would have bet higher pocket pairs or even a hand like A4 on the previous street. His turn bet represents a K or a slowplayed 2 like 90% of the time here.

2. Against a K, we probably have on average about 12 counterfeit out to havlf the pot (considering the average K which he might be betting...), plus the case K and the 2 deuces. We have our three fives as outs as well. So maybe we have like 9ish outs here, but we have some serious reverse implied action since it's pretty hard to call the turn and then fold the river if we don't hit a big card ori other out, and often when we do so we'll lose anyway.

3. The pot is TINY! This is the biggest part! We're getting 5-2 on a call down, meaning we'll need to be right nearly 30% of the time to merit calling/raising here. If we improve in the neigborhood of 18% of the time, we still need to have pure equity in the neigbhorhood of 15% (from chopping or simply having the best hand). Given the read that's not the case.