Derby

[Woody09]

All Subject to Change

Box: Bellamy Rd; High Limit
Trifecta: Bellamy Rd; High Limit; Afleet Alex
Superfecta: Bellamy Rd; High Limit; Afleet Alex; Wilko.

I'm actually doing this off the top of my head, I'm interested in hearing what others think.

[hogua]

Like most, I think Bellamy Road will be hard to beat... should get the lead easy and my be long gone it left alone out front.

I'm still trying to figure out if it is a good value at 5/2. At this point, I am leaninf toward "yes", but 3-1 makes it an easier WIN bet and 4-1 is a no brainer. (Don't worry, I won't hold my breath for 4-1, but I will keep my fingers crossed.)

There's an awful lot of chalk (in your exotics) for a 20 horse field for my liking. Think your missing out on some better values ... especially on the Tri and Super.

That being said, I'm not big on betting tris and supers, so what do i know?

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] they showed all of first ten post positions 12-1 or greater..and mostly 20-1 or up....as expected

but afleet alex was the fav at 7-2 and bellamy rd at 4-1 ...hmmmm..

shorty jones was 2nd on early morning line last year...then got bet to fav within a day...held the chalk..and won the race,,,but

i cannot see the arkansas derby winner beating the wood memorial winner..

jmho

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Holybull]

Picks:

Afleet Alex to win.

Tris: Afleet Alex over High Fly/Sun King over all
HF/SK over AA over all

Good Luck!

[chiachu]

Im picking Afleet Alex as well (mind you i dont follow horse racing at all [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

Do you think id be better off locking in 9:2 on Afleet Alex now, or do you think the final line will be better?

[Holybull]

I really can't imagine you getting better than 9-2 on Afleet Alex on Saturday. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. He may even go off favored. I'd be happy with 7-2.

The main risk you'd be taking is that he gets scratched, then you're SOL.

[chiachu]

Ok i guess ill just take the 9:2 now then (since ill get money back if he scratches). Thanks for the input.

I am interested in hearing the thought process on Sun King. I just don't see it. He put up a nice number when he ran an allowance race, but his last two numbers are unimpressive, his G-3 win he went off at 1-20 so his competition was glue, and his last was not competitive with this group although it looks like he had a horrible ride. I don't know that I see how he can improve to get a piece here.

Interested in thoughts on speed in this race. If someone that is not cheap speed can get out there and run with Bellamy Road so we get a pace, I can see Afleet Alex winning the race. But I am struggling to find that horse. The only one I see could be it is High Limit, or maybe Greeley's Galaxy. Any other speed horse does not look like it would give Bellamy much of a fight.

On the other hand, I will always have difficulty accepting the notion that a horse can win this race wire-to-wire, and I don't see Bellamy sitting in 2nd or 3rd and rating. Too many horses and too much nonsense can happen that I think it's just better to sit in the pack and make a move a the top of the stretch, and that's not a running style that suits Bellamy Road.

If the price on Bellamy Road is short come post time, I think I will go with Afleet Alex and Bandini. Will also look again at Noble Causeway. If the public starts to shy away from Bellamy Road for whatever reason, then I think I would considering going his way.

Don't Get Mad is an interesting horse too. Ordinarily would stay away, but intriguing are (1) running style and (2) win over this track in the Derby Trial. Will look at him again too if the price is right.

Comments on this rant?

I just read that Spanish Chestnut's sole purpose in the race is to go at Bellamy Road early. Not sure what that will do to High Limit. Wonder if that actually may make it more difficult to knock Bellamy Road down, as if you're going against him maybe you're better off having High Limit challenge him, as High Limit may be able to last longer and give a better fight. If High Limit can't make the lead or maybe 2nd, he may not challenge at all. Meanwhile Bellamy Road dusts Spanish whatever, and runs away. Just rambling thoughts.

[jpg777]

I'm going for some prices this year.

Top Selection: Sun King
Exacta Box: Sun King, Greeley's Galaxy, Wilko

I did bet $7 and change, the remainder of my bodog balance, on Bellamy Road a couple of days after the Wood at 7/2.