I hate getting CR'ed on the river

Sean D · #1 12-03-2005, 03:59 AM

Do you think I'm good 1 in 8 here? I'm not so sure. I think not paying these off has been a big help to my game. Either that, or a big leak. Thoughts?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero?

deepsquat · #2 12-03-2005, 04:24 AM

Prob not. pretty strong play for .5/1

If it was an obvious scare card like an Ace or a K or another J these calls become alot easier. Not sure if your average .5/1 player is this creative.

jaxUp · #3 12-03-2005, 04:30 AM

I think that you could fold TPGK here. You will see a better hand almost always

#4 12-03-2005, 04:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you could fold TPGK here. You will see a better hand almost always

[/ QUOTE ]

he doesnt have TP.... there is a J on the board

i think bet/fold is the correct line for the river, nh

istewart · #5 12-03-2005, 04:49 AM

I think he was saying that this is a clear fold, and that you could probably even fold TPGK here.

But I think that while this is probably a good fold it is far from easy, and that folding TP here would definitely be a mistake. Plus I think any money that you throw away immediately by calling the check/raise can be made up once you see what he plays like this; you kind've need to pay for these reads fast 4-handed or you'll be eaten up Party's Nazi rake [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

robertsonjohn · #6 12-03-2005, 05:08 AM

What beats you? He doesn't have TT+, He doesn't have 44, 66,99 or 88. He doesn't have J8. Do you think he has QT, 98, or runner runner flush more than 12.5% of the time? Pay him off, lose, and feel good about the fact that he would only have a winning hand 12.6% of the time which is a money-making bonanza for you (coupled with the fact that marginal river calls like that prevent people from trying to steal pots from you any time a scare card falls HU)

UATrewqaz · #7 12-03-2005, 05:21 AM

Reads? PT numbers on villain?

This reeks of a rivered two pair.

You called and villain had 86?

Pot is 8.25 BB and it's 1 back to you if I'm reading it right.

I probably pay it off even though I know I'm probably beat. You get a reputation as a river folder and any observant player at the table might start pulling this on ya.

#8 12-03-2005, 07:09 AM

Why are you betting the river anyway?

Villian is never folding a better hand here EVER...
What do you put villian on here?
Are you good 55% of the time you are called?

I find myself taking what's considered the "soft option" by most 2 + 2ers, a lot in situations like this. But here's my reasoning.

If [as villian] I see you value betting on the river all the time, I'm going to do exactly this. I'm going to bluff checkraise (hopeless hands) and value checkraise (great) hands like this all day long. And I'll do it just enough that it doesn't matter how often you call or fold you are going to lose money in the long run.

So, when I see an opportunity that I would take for a bluff checkraise {if I was the villian} I bump up the requirements for a value bet.
Ie. I have to be good here when called ~70% of the time to bet.

What that means in this particular case is: I wouldn't be betting this river unless I had top pair or villian will call with UI overs ~100% of the time.

Flame away.

John Paul · #9 12-03-2005, 10:41 AM

If you are seen as an agressive player, the BB could have decided to c/r with Jx. Of he could have a legitimate str8 or flush. A read here would really help. If he is the kind of player that c/r on these boards with nothing, call (obviously). If he is someone who plays like 50% of his hand, but you have no read, it might be worth making this investment to get a read. But I don't think you are good often enough to be +EV on this board, and you can't get your read from other hands.

Sean D · #10 12-03-2005, 01:00 PM

Sorry for the lack of reads. I hadn't been at the table very long. Looking back on it, I see that villian is 58/6.45/1.7, but thats after only 31 hands.

The bet on the river is purely for value. This is 4-handed, and I've been playing aggressive. Yes he is calling with many worse hands here.

I would say there are very very few players at .50/1 capable of pulling a river CR bluff. I think this is a pretty easy value bet, and it's probably safe to fold to a raise. Also, players aren't very observant at this level, and as a general rule, I don't give any new player credit for being tricky.