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  #1  
Old 11-04-2005, 03:24 PM
pokerstudAA pokerstudAA is offline
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Default An interesting J6s hand.

Played this hand the other day and was looking for some feedback. It was largely read/player/stack sized/situationally based. So pay attention to the details before flaming me.....

The situation: Deep in an MTT. 650 started - 60 left. Hero has a big chip lead at the table and a 3x average stack size at 64k. (avg 22k or so) Hero is in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds 2k/4k.

The players:
MP2 -been at several tables with MP2. He has been consitently raising heros BB - even from earlier positions with small low risk 2-3x BB raises. Hero has been giving it up like a little girl but is waiting for a chance to play back at him. MP2 Has 26k in chips.

CO - Played solidly so far. 24k left
Button - 24k. Has not shown anything crazy.
SB - no real player read

The hand: MP2 opens for 2x the BB 8k. CO cold calls for 8k. Button cold calls 8k. SB calls 8k. Hero is BB and the pot is 32k + 4k (hero's BB). Hero has everyone at the table covered.


Reads: MP2 was raising light. I think the table knew that and had similar reads on MP2. CO could have a small pair or suited connectors. Button and SB are playing speculative hands. The pot is huge.

My thinking - no one can bust me here. 20k would hurt but certainly not cripple me. I want this pot right now. MP2 did not want all this action and should fold. Button and SB both are playing speculative hands and will probably fold. I do not think anyone has a big pair JJ, QQ, KK, AA. We would have seen more action preflop. I can call 4k and check fold any non-favorable flop. OR I can push and try to take it here. If I get called by 77,88, 99, TT - I am not that bad (68/31 ish). If I get called by AQ, AT - I am not that bad (65/35 ish). AJ would be bad (70/30). If someone slowplayed AA,KK - really bad - except at this point I dont think any of the player involved would have played those hands this way. Everyone in the pot has about 18-20k left and might not be ready to risk their entire tournament this deep. I don't think anyone has much of a hand. I think I can get a few folds. If I get one caller I might not be that bad off. The pot is freaking huge. I think making this huge squeeze play has a good chance of working. At worst I will get the pot heads ups and a 70/30 dog. I have a decent chance of winning a huge pot.

Hero goes all in with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
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  #2  
Old 11-04-2005, 03:28 PM
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hands.

Good play! Squeeze play...

Fold or all-in, do not call... Even with 1 call, you get good odds unless against higher PP or Aj, KJ or QJ (only AJ may call you...).

Also, you are big stack and won't be out if you loose.
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  #3  
Old 11-04-2005, 03:31 PM
illegit illegit is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hands.

Yeah I like the play especially since you only risk @ 1/3 your stack at most even if called and you probably have a lot of FE, though i would not be surprised if one of the cold-callers calls with something like AQ.

A call would be fine too.
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  #4  
Old 11-04-2005, 03:34 PM
Pat Southern Pat Southern is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hand.

I dont see how you expect anybody to fold when they have 1/3 of their stack in the middle already.
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  #5  
Old 11-04-2005, 04:16 PM
pokerstudAA pokerstudAA is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see how you expect anybody to fold when they have 1/3 of their stack in the middle already.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is more of a reason they might fold. Most players involved in the hand will still have average stack sizes if they fold. No one has shown any real strength and everyone appears to have hands that would like to see a flop in a multiway pot. Anyone with a solid hand would probably have pushed preflop with those stacks and a 2x raise.
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  #6  
Old 11-04-2005, 04:45 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hand.

A call is better.

MP2 is going to call getting 3.2:1 even if he has nothing. At least one other player is going to call, maybe two or more given the sweet pot odds. Because of the huge overlay hero is EV+, but because of his weak hand he is unlikely to win in a multiway pot.

Your better off seeing the flop getting 9:1 on your call than pushing and having:
23% equity 3 way
19% equity 4 way
less five wys

its always EV+, for hero because of the overlay, but not that EV+ (maybe T2000), but he doesn't need to gamble his commanding stack here with j6.

Conversely many of the players will wish to gamble here with hands like 77 etc.
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  #7  
Old 11-04-2005, 04:45 PM
billyjex billyjex is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hand.

You definetely getting called by at least one player. If it folds to the button/sb even most bad players realize the prize they're getting. If you're pulling this because you expect to take it down preflop, it won't happen. I would rather call and hope to flop something sexy.
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  #8  
Old 11-04-2005, 05:51 PM
BettyBoopAA BettyBoopAA is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hands.

This squeeze play won't work. I expect the whole table to call. MP2 is getting 3-1 odds to call, Co then gets 4.5 odds and so on. What you have done is create a huge pot with J6. This is not a squeeze play, it's chip urination.
for squeeze play to work, you need very tight image and players without good pot odds to call.
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  #9  
Old 11-04-2005, 06:31 PM
billyjex billyjex is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hand.

by "prize" I meant "price."
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  #10  
Old 11-04-2005, 06:37 PM
Pat Southern Pat Southern is offline
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Default Re: An interesting J6s hands.

[ QUOTE ]
This squeeze play won't work. I expect the whole table to call. MP2 is getting 3-1 odds to call, Co then gets 4.5 odds and so on. What you have done is create a huge pot with J6. This is not a squeeze play, it's chip urination.
for squeeze play to work, you need very tight image and players without good pot odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, if the blinds had been 500/1000 and you were going against a minraise in this situation it could be good, but this is just a pretty bad misapplication of a squeeze play.
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