KQo A Big Loser. Hand 1.

Raising this flop is fine - he'll bet a lot hands you beat. But when he 3-bets this drawless flop you can be almost sure you're behind (a passive player won't 3-bet here with something you beat like KJ; A8). But getting 12 to 1 on the flop calling is still good.

I think he has something like K8, 44, 88 after he leads this turn. You're getting 7 to 1 from the pot here and most of the time youre drawing to 2 or 3 outs - you can fold here.
You'll have to pay 2 bets to see the showdown and the pot will contain 10BB in the end - I doubt a passive player will overplay an 8 or a weaker K against a pfr and flop-raiser more than once in 6 times.

[moot]

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The river call was clearly a mistake.

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Folding the river would be a big mistake.

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Calling the turn basically commits you to call the river. You should either be folding the turn or calling down all the way. Calling the turn, and then folding the river UI is about the worst way you can play this hand.

I would have probably played it the same way.

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Not necessarily. For instance we have a good read villain has 2 pair, we have never seen him bluff over hundreds of hands, and he likes to checkraise the turn whenever he has something more than 2 pair. We're behind but we have between 5 and 6 outs depending on what kind of 2 pair he has, enough to call the turn, yet we should fold the river. This is purely hypothetical and I agree calling the river is best in this situation.

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I knew someone was going to say something about this and I almost made a sidenote about it. Yes, they're are some rare hypothetical situtations that might come up but they almost NEVER happen, especially online.

First of all, most time you WON'T have 6 outs. Only if the villian has specifically 84. If he has K8 or K4 you have only 3 outs, and this is more likely (for him to have a Kx hand) because he called a raise from the SB. And if he has 44 or 88 you're really screwed. So you'll never really have enough outs to justify drawing, if you decide that you're sure you're behind (which, as I said, you almost never can do).

And even if you're fairly certain you're beat on the river you only need to win 11% of the time in order to call, so most times you probably should call at this point. So like I said, most times by calling the turn you commit yourself to a river call.

For hands like these, when he bets out at me on the turn I do a little calculation. I make a rough estimate of the chance that I'm ahead PLUS my chance to draw out if behind, and decide if I'm getting odds. Then I either fold the turn or commit myself to a showdown.

[thesharpie]

You have 8 outs against K4, 6 outs against 84, and 3 outs against K8. An average of 5.66 outs, about enough to peel the turn if you knew you're behind to specifically 2 pair. Obviously your chances are worse if you include sets in his range, but if I did that my example would be wrong as we wouldn't quite be getting the pot odds to draw on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I agree in this hand we should call the turn and river for the reasons you mentioned, my example was a hypothetical play against a hypothetical opponent.

How do you do the calculation of the chance you're ahead plus the chance you'll draw out if behind? I've been wondering about that and never got around to working it out.

[John Paul]

I think these replies show that this is a marginal situation either way. Clearly you should call the flop 3-bet. If you call down from the turn, then you are paying 2 bb to win 8bb. So, if you have a 25% to win you are good. Agianst an unknown this is a fine call down, but if you are sure you are behind, it is not so good. A read here would help, but you should also consider if you have been raising a lot and if the villian might think you are bluffing. In your place at 6max I would have called down.

[benneh]

just a note: KQo is a big winner for me. I think it's probably one of the easiest overcard hands to play for me. If I whiff, it's usually a very easy dump on the flop as compared to a hand like AK, AQ (at least for me) and when I hit I can be fairly sure I have the best hand, except on rare occassions when AK and AQ aren't raised.

i'll read the hand now.

[benneh]

nothing wrong with this hand. very standard.

[trainslayer]

I think I'd play the flop same way. Probably fold the turn. He's saying he's got something he's proud of. I tend to believe him here.

[moot]

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You have 8 outs against K4, 6 outs against 84, and 3 outs against K8. An average of 5.66 outs, about enough to peel the turn if you knew you're behind to specifically 2 pair. Obviously your chances are worse if you include sets in his range, but if I did that my example would be wrong as we wouldn't quite be getting the pot odds to draw on the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I agree in this hand we should call the turn and river for the reasons you mentioned, my example was a hypothetical play against a hypothetical opponent.

How do you do the calculation of the chance you're ahead plus the chance you'll draw out if behind? I've been wondering about that and never got around to working it out.

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Okay, wait, I was wrong, you have more than 3 outs against K4 (up too late; tired), but are you sure it's 8? 3 Q outs, 3 8 outs, which 2 am I missing? The 2 Ks obviously aren't outs, because it boats him. Maybe I'm missing something...

As for the calcution... It's mostly just a very rough estimate. I'm not entirely sure on the math, but I suppose it would be...

Let's say it's the turn, and I may be behind but I may also have the best hand. If behind I figure I have 4 outs. So I'm getting 42 to 4 on the call, or 10.25 to 1. But let's say the pot is only offering me 7 to 1. That's a deficit of 3.25 to 1, so that would mean in order for me to justify a call there would also have to be a 23.5% chance I had the best hand.

I think.

Is that right? I'm might be a bit off in not factoring in things like implied odds, but I think I'm on the right track...

[TomBrooks]

RESULTS. FOLLOW UP COMMENTS. PURSUING THE QUESTION.

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i just call down after the 3bet. sure it reeks of a set or twopair, but I think there are many Kx that might play it that way.

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I don't remember what I was thinking when I played the hand, but when I reviewed it, I also felt the flop 3bet reeked of two pair or a set. I raised with Kx. How many people actually three bet with just Top Pair Kx? That is very unusual. It is a maniac play, but this opponent was not a maniac.

When I reviewed this hand, I feel calling the river unimproved was leaking. I was almost sure I was beat. My thinking may have been skewed by knowing the result, but I don't think so - I was, and am, trying to be objective here and not results oriented.

Villian had 44 for a set. When I replayed this hand, putting Villian on two pair or a set seemed to me almost without question.

If he had two pair, calling the flop and turn was correct. If he had a set, folding the flop might be correct but certainly folding the turn would be correct. If your almost certain villian has two pair or a set, but don't know which one, how do you calculate if your getting the correct odds to continue on average?

[bottomset]

I usually just call the flop here

raising the turn a lot of the time