QQ - probably beat but the pot is big

olavfo · #1 07-03-2005, 07:33 AM

First orbit, no reads.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 (Villain) calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, Villain 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, Villain calls, MP1 calls.

The limp-reraise doesn't make me optimistic, but I go ahead and cap it with 4 callers.

Flop: (21 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Villain bets, MP1 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, Villain calls.

I put Villain on AA, KK or possibly QQ or AKs. That's 13 combinations and the best I can do is tie with one of them. I have pot odds to outdraw him though (when including implied odds), so I can't fold.

I decide to go for a free card, since there's a good chance Villain will call and attempt a turn check-raise. I haven't done the EV math, but this should be highly +EV if my assumption about Villain's lust for a check-raise is correct.

Turn: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: (12.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets, Hero ?

The big question is: Do I call one more bet here? With the range of hands I put Villain on, there's a 1/13 chance to tie, but that's it. Still, the pot is big and this is Party 1/2 after all, so he could have other hands than AA-QQ, AKs

How was my play of this hand, up to this point?

olavfo

sholvar · #2 07-03-2005, 07:43 AM

I think your play was not bad, but in this situation, you are most times beaten or bluffed. So you must bet the flop, doesnt matter which card comes. Then villian folds if he wanted to bluff you, calls with nearly every hand and raises if you have only a little chance to tie.
If he raises you can fold or thinkin about that, what was said in SSH: sometimes call turnraises to be sure not to get bluffraises on 4th street.

Because you no nothin about your enemy and not enough about your hand, you must call the riverbet in my opinion. The pot is too big. If your call was wrong you lose one more bet, but if you fold and that was wrong you lose 13 BB!!!

Sykes · #3 07-03-2005, 07:57 AM

Call and win against JJ. If he doesn't have JJ, then, well thank him for saving you infinite bets.

Fantam · #4 07-03-2005, 08:27 AM

I liked your play to the river.

If you had a strong read of villain being very tight-passive, I think you could probably safely fold on the river, espescially if you thought that he was the type of player to limp/3-bet PF with AA or KK.

However as you said that you had no reads, I would consider it worth calling the river bet against an unknown opponent.

kitaristi0 · #5 07-03-2005, 09:04 AM

I've seen people limp/reraise with worse hands then AA-QQ and AKs. Add that to the fact that the pot is really big, i say it's an easy call.

bozlax · #6 07-03-2005, 09:56 AM

Love the free-card play, and the thinking that went into it. Had Villan donkbet you on the turn or 3-bet the flop, I think you can give this up, but since your free-card worked you probably need to call down the river.

To me, the turn checking through says: 1. Villan whiffed on a C/R, 2. Villan's worried about YOU having AK, or 3. Villan was worried about your having KK. Comparing these 3 possibilities to the possible holdings of an unknown LRR'er at Party 1/2 leads me to the inescapable conclusion that you're hand is good better than 1 time in 12. More reason to call.

olavfo · #7 07-03-2005, 10:06 AM

I called the river bet and Villain turned up a pair of aces.

I didn't mind that. At least I had odds to chase, and he gave me a free card to outdraw him.

BluEsiNsOuL · #8 07-03-2005, 12:32 PM

Your check in turn will induce a bluff sometimes, definitely worth a call here. I will probably play the same way.

McGahee · #9 07-03-2005, 01:24 PM

I don't like the flop raise. If you are going to play the flop like that, you must bet the turn. If C/R'd on the turn it's an easy fold.
If you're going to play the turn as you did, you must call the river.
I don't understand your use of the free card play in this spot with only 2 outs.

olavfo · #10 07-03-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your use of the free card play in this spot with only 2 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Because I have pot odds to draw, assuming I'm behind. The pot is very big after it was capped preflop with 5 players seeing the flop. If seeing the turn card for 1 small bet is profitable, then seeing both the remaining cards for 2 small bets should be even more profitable.

But let's do the math to be sure. I got 2 outs and 4.3% chance to improve on the turn, and 8.4% chance to improve with two cards to come. My options are:

1. Call the flop and fold the turn UI (since I won't have pot odds to see the river card when the bet size doubles).

The EV (in terms of big bets) for calling a flop bet and folding the turn UI, assuming I win one big bet on both the turn and river if I improve on the turn, is

EV = 0.043*(11+1+1) + 0.957*(-0.5) = +0.08

so calling a bet on the flop and folding the turn UI is +EV.

2. Raise the flop and take a free card (assuming this works).

I have 8.4% chance to improve with two cards to come, so assuming I check the turn behind UI, and win a total of two additional big bets if I improve on either street (that's a reasonable assumption), the EV-equation becomes:

EV = 0.084*(11.5 + 1 + 1) + 0.916*(-1) = +0.22

so both options are profitable in this huge pot, but the free card play earns me almost three times as much as just calling the flop.

So to answer your question: I "know" I am beat, so what I'm trying to do is to draw out on Villain. The pot odds are big enough for me to draw to my 2-outer and the free card play is the most profitable play. I was very certain it would work (fish love to smooth call a flop raise and check-raise when the bet size doubles).

My only problem was what to do on the river UI.

Of course, if the free card play backfires and I get reraised and/or Villain bets the turn, I call a flop reraise and fold the turn UI.

olavfo