New Poker Tracker Autorater Rules

[Harv72b]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Bisonbison, and goodness knows he's done more for this site and online poker in general than most anyone else. But I've always been a little less than enamored with his autorater rules...while they're good and generally get the job done, they don't quite tell the whole story. I like the whole story. Usually. Unless it's got Keanu Reeves or Bette Midler in it. Or it's about dancing.

Many of you have seen me harp about "proper aggression" vs. just plain "aggression" on here. This is a huge difference when it comes to being a successful poker player, and is the most important skill there is in postflop play. Anybody can just wait for a premium hand and then raise like an Amish building a barn no matter what the board looks like. A good player knows when his premium hand is (or isn't) worth raising postflop, and knows when to fold it when the board (and action) warrant doing so. The easiest way to measure this in a purely statistical format is through a player's Went to Showdown and Won $ at Showdown numbers. A player who goes to showdown around 32-38% of the time, and wins at showdown between about 50 & 57% of the time, is probably a good postflop player. Note that these numbers are taken from personal experience, as well as from CallMeIshmael's Stat Post. I'm actually being a bit generous when it comes to ranges.

With that in mind, I wanted to create a new set of autorate rules that takes a player's postflop skill into account, more so than just his pure aggression. I think I've done that, and would love to hear opinions on whether or not I have (and whether or not you think that's more important than knowing if a player is just passive or aggressive). I opted to use the Won $ at Showdown percentage rather than Went to Showdown because a player's VPIP can skew the latter stat--if a guy is playing 90% of his hands, then unless he's the ultimate wet dream calling station his WtSD is probably going to be lower than a person playing only 15% of their hands. Also, note that I went with VPIP 23 as the cutoff between "loose" and "tight"; this is because I play a fair amount of 6max & shorthanded, where a good player's VPIP is obviously going to be a bit higher. If you're only playing full ring, bump the cutoff down to 20% or whatever number you think proper. Enough already...here's what I wound up with:

Loose-Aggressive/Caller (LAC) - Taz icon. VPIP greater than 23%; PFR greater than 8%; Won $ at Showdown less than 50%. This is a player who just can't lay down a pair or strong ace postflop, but is nice enough to raise preflop to let you know when he has what he considers a good starting hand. His exact definition of "good starting hand" will depend on his precise PFR percentage. You want to play against these people, but don't bother trying to bluff them.

Loose-Aggressive/Good (LAG) - Dice icon. VPIP greater than 23%, PFR greater than 8%, Won $ at Showdown between 50 and 57. A LAG being a somewhat decent player will take some getting used to, but that's what has happened here. These players are still too loose preflop, either through a lack of positional awareness, overconfidence in his postflop play, or some combination of the two. However, he has a clue about postflop play, and will not pay you off too often when the board says he's likely beat. Especially if you have a strong table image (because he's probably paying attention to that), this player is susceptible to the occasional bluff on a big scare card, or semibluff when the board is unlikely to have hit his hand.

Loose-Aggressive/Weak (LAW) - Smiley icon. VPIP greater than 23%, PFR greater than 8%, Won $ at Showdown greater than 57%. This player plays too many hands, probably raises with too many of them, but is nice enough to fold far too often postflop. He is extremely susceptible to bluffs or semibluffs when a scare card hits (as long as you don't overdo it), but you'd better have a really strong hand to stay in against him if he 3-bets your turn raise. If he gives you a lot of action postflop, then unless your table image completely reeks, he's got the goods. If your table image completely reeks, he's still got at least a good pair with good kicker.

Loose-Passive/Caller (LPC) - Telephone icon. VPIP greater than 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown less than 50%. The quintessential calling station, and your ideal opponent. He's playing too many hands, not raising enough of his strong hands preflop (so you can easily sneak in behind him with all sorts of things), and has huge problems with folding anything postflop. Value bet the hell out of these players, and this includes a turn bet with AQ UI if you're HU or close to it--there's a good chance you're still best. But again, don't bother with a turn semibluff raise or betting A high on the river, because he's never folding a hand that beats you.

Loose-Passive/Good (LPG) - Warning sign icon. VPIP greater than 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown between 50 and 57%. This player is an enigma--he plays too many hands, probably because of a lack of positional awareness; he doesn't raise enough preflop, probably because of an overall weak attitude; but he has a pretty decent understanding of what to do postflop. Hence the warning icon--don't let his loose/passive stats fool you into thinking you can value bet with third pair on a drawless board, because he's probably got top pair if he's calling you.

Loose-Passive/Weak (LPW) - Fish icon. VPIP greater than 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown greater than 57%. If you could choose an ideal opponent for a heads up match, this would be the guy. He plays too many hands, he doesn't raise with enough of his strong hands, and he'll happily make an "expert" fold of anything less than top pair postflop. Isolate on these players and bluff away, especially if you have a good table image, because he'll be folding far more often than he calls you down. If he raises you on a late street, you can generally muck anything less than a monster.

Tight-Aggressive/Caller (TAC) - Frowny icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR greater than 8%, Won $ at Showdown less than 50%. Think of a TAG on tilt. If he can think of any way that his ace high or underpair could possibly be good, he'll call you down. Plus, he's considerate enough to raise with those premium hands, allowing you to put him on a pretty accurate range of hands based on his total PFR%. When he checks it to you on the river and you're holding any pair, go ahead and value bet, confident in him calling with unimproved overcards.

Tight-Aggressive/Good (TAG) - Moneybags icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR greater than 8%, Won $ at Showdown between 50 and 57%. What you want to be. Playing the right number of hands, raising liberally with your strong starting hands (or with equity in LP with a speculative starting hand), and making the correct balance of proper laydowns with payoffs postflop.

Tight-Aggressive/Weak (TAW) - Elephant icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR greater than 8%, Won $ at Showdown greater than 57%. A weak/tight player who's still a little optimistic when he sees AKo before the flop. He waits for strong hands, raises liberally with his premium ones, and then gives up on the turn (if not the flop) when his overcards whiff or the board makes it look like his pair might have been drawn out on. This player is very susceptible to bluff raises, particularly when a scare card hits on the river (although you obviously want to use this move sparingly). If he goes 3 bets on any street, he's got a very strong hand (or a very strong draw in a multiway pot).

Tight-Passive/Caller (TPC) - Rock icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown less than 50%. A rock, hence the icon. He waits for a strong hand preflop, doesn't raise enough because you never know when someone else has a stronger hand (and he doesn't really believe in blind stealing), and will go into calldown mode with anything short of the near nuts at the first sign of resistance postflop. However, he will almost never fold with anything even resembling a showdown-worthy hand, regardless of the board or action, because he's waited a long time for his KK and he's not going to let a couple hosers bluff him off the pot just because an ace flopped and they can't stop raising each other. Raise for the free card against him whenever you've got a draw worth continuing with, but don't bother bluffing the turn or river if you miss.

Tight-Passive/Good (TPG) - Eagle icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown between 50 and 57%. He's a little passive preflop, probably because he doesn't try to steal the blinds often enough and doesn't think to raise behind lots of limpers with a good multi-way hand, but other than that this is a good player. If you find yourself at a table with 9 of these guys, just leave--sure, their passive nature will let you sneak into a bunch of pots with speculative hands, but they aren't going to pay off enough when you hit to make it worthwhile.

Tight-Passive/Weak (TPW) - Mouse icon. VPIP less than or equal to 23%, PFR less than or equal to 8%, Won $ at Showdown greater than 57%. The textbook weak/tight player. He is constantly afraid of monsters under the bed, so feel free to represent one from time to time. He probably doesn't raise with AK because "it's just a drawing hand". He is the ideal opponent to attempt a turn semibluff raise against when the board is scary, because he'll sigh and lay down a pretty strong hand as yet another player "outdrew him". This is also the ideal opponent to steal blinds against.

Maniac (MAN) - Bomb icon. VPIP greater than 75%, PFR greater than 25%, Postflop aggression greater than 1.5. My favorite opponent. He'll play any two regardless of the number of bets to him. He'll raise with practically any two, on any street. He'll cap any street with a gutshot draw or less. He'll gladly cap the river with 9 high on the off chance that you'll fold for that one extra bet. Playing against these opponents is fairly simple--first, isolate. Once isolated, keep raising with second pair or better, call down with any other pair or ace high. Don't bother to raise with your draws against him (unless there are enough other people in the pot to make the raise +EV), because he'll never give you a free card and will often 3-bet with absolutely anything. *** IMPORTANT NOTE: if you use this rule, you must set the priority for it to "1", as the maniac rules will also fall under the loose-aggressive/X rules. Setting the priority to "1" will cause PokerTracker to compare a player's stats against the maniac rules before trying any other rule set.***

Note that, with the exception of the maniac, postflop aggression is not used in these rules. I went with this again because a player's VPIP can greatly affect his AF; someone who plays 50% of their hands will necessarily have a lower aggression factor than someone who plays only 10% of their hands, because they will find themselves in situations where a call is warranted (or they call anyway) far more often. This is also why the maniac's AF qualifier is "only" 1.5; it is tough to maintain an aggression factor that high when you're playing 75% of your hands.

So there you have it. Use 'em if you want to, don't if you don't. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KDawgCometh]

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props harv

Wow, absolutely fantastic stuff! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The funny thing is i find the general consensus on what abbrevations we use to describe fellowplayers way too sketchy so i was working on a questionnaire lately to somewhat get more fitting, narrowed categories as well. Like i said, still working on it because its hard to do. This is what i was somewhat aiming for, so i guess schools out! GREAT!

[soweak.]

Man now if you could only post this as a .txt doc, or in a format to copy/paste into PT I think I would love you forever.

[scrub]

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...wins at showdown between about 50 & 57% of the time, is probably a good postflop player.

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A player who wins at showdown on the high end of that range probably isn't nearly aggressive enough on the river.

scrub

[Harv72b]

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...wins at showdown between about 50 & 57% of the time, is probably a good postflop player.

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A player who wins at showdown on the high end of that range probably isn't nearly aggressive enough on the river.

scrub

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Meh. Like I said, I'm being generous in the ranges in the interest of creating a "cookie cutter" type rating system that will function within the 14 categories allowed by PT. You could definitely narrow down the Won $ at Showdown numbers further...52-56% would probably be better, but you'd get a ton of false readings on opponents with a sample size less than a thousand hand or so.

Incidentally, that is a drawback to this rating system vs. BisonBison's: you need larger samples on your opponents before you can get a somewhat accurate read, as it takes longer for W$atSD to firm up than postflop aggression. I meant to include that in the original post.

[Dariel86]

When rating, I'm getting players with No rules met, setting icon back to default quite a bit. Something I've done wrong or something you've done wrong?

[Harv72b]

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When rating, I'm getting players with No rules met, setting icon back to default quite a bit. Something I've done wrong or something you've done wrong?

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It rated 100% of the players in my database and I just triplechecked to make sure I didn't typo any of the rules, so you must've typed something in wrong on your end.

I know I mis-entered one rule the first time I ran this, and wound up with about 30 unrated players.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I like it Harv.

This is really good for people with large mined databases. But for people who don't, Bisons is probably still more convenient as I would imagine it can take a large number of hands for W$SD to settle.

Good stuff.

[SavageMiser]

Fantastic. I will give these a whirl.