Conceptual 5/10 NL Hand - tying together stack depth/stop'n'go

[coltrane]

Hero and Villain (both good players) are heads up on the flop with villain on the button and $100 in the pot. Both players each have $1000 more behind.

Flop is T53 - all hearts.

Hero leads for $100 with KhQh and villain raises to $400 with AhTs

Should hero reraise all-in or flat call and then lead out all-in on any non-heart turn card? Assume villain will probably call a flop reraise but will probably fold to a turn all-in.

Clearly villain has made a mistake by raising on the flop. However, once that has happened, if hero reraises all-in, villain is making a mistake by folding (i.e. - hero would want villain to fold to the reraise but would want him to call a big turn bet). Or is it the effective odds that are important here?

[felson]

The answer depends on the probability that Villain folds on a blank turn. If he never folds the turn (and Hero can check/fold a turn heart), then clearly the stop'n'go is correct. If he folds with probability p, then the right decision is a simple math problem.

[coltrane]

what if villain always folds a non-heart turn?....

[kagame]

then the +EV play would be all in on the flop for the KQh, correct?

i dislike this stop and go because even if another heart comes off it will be an extremely difficult fold with the second nuts and if you will fold that with a big pot youre asking to be pushed around. how can the KQh have a good enough read to know Villain has the Ace? i suppose holding the third nut card helps immensely but still...

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]
how can the KQh have a good enough read to know Villain has the Ace? i suppose holding the third nut card helps immensely but still...

[/ QUOTE ]

i am pretty he is assuming the hero knows the villians cards

[BK_]

[ QUOTE ]
if hero reraises all-in, villain is making a mistake by folding

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villians fold wouldnt be incorrect if he knew he was only drawing to his heart outs. unless you arnt assuming that?

[bunky9590]

Wel as it sits. If I'm hero its a push. I'm not getting in 40% of my stack on a flop call with second nuts. If he comes over the top right there, its all going in.


I can see the case for the stop and go, but, problem is there would be 900 or so in the pot and you only have 600 left? If he wants to get frisky with a draw, let him. But I'm not getting cute with KQh there.

[GFunk911]

Guys, not to get all Sklansky, but this is a math problem.

Assuming each player put 50 in preflop, to make it easier.

If opponent folds on the flop, you gain 450 for the hand (I know the money in the pot already is sunk, I'm just using your chip amount before the hand as a point of reference).

If you push and opponent calls

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Th 7h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kh Qh 676 68.28 314 31.72 0 0.00 0.683
Td Ah 314 31.72 676 68.28 0 0.00 0.317

Opponent has a EV of calling (relative to folding) of 65.7 (31.7% * 2100 - 600). If opponent calls, hero has an Hand EV of 384.

I'm ignoring the runner runner straight flush and full house cards, and saying there are 7 hearts out of 45 remaining cards. A heart will spike 16% of the time, and hero will fold the turn (remember this is hypothetical), losing 450 for the hand. A non-heart will come 84% of the time, hero pushes and villian folds, netting 450 for hero. The Hand EV of this scenario is 308.

In this hypothetical, assuming (basically) perfect information, the stop and go is bad. Just because an opponent would not be making a mistake to call a flop all in doesn't mean it is a mistake for you to do it.

[ML4L]

Hey coltrane,

Let's tweak the hand a little bit to simplify the turn play (i.e. if a T falls on the turn, he's correct to call your all-in if you flat-call the flop and lead the turn). Assume the flop is J53 all hearts instead.

If you flat-call the flop and lead a non-heart turn, your post-hand equity is:

38/45 * 1500 + 7/45 * 600 = $1360

If you get all-in on the flop, your post-hand equity is:

.711 * $2100 = $1493.1

So, in this specific situation, you want to get your money in on the flop (this hand shows why you don't want to get yourself pot-stuck on a draw). But, of course, change a few details, and the answer will change...

ML4L

[togilvie]

I agree it's just a math problem, but I'm getting the result that the Stop & Go is a better result.

Check out the following URL for my decision tree graphic:

http://members.tripod.com/an_excite_fan/

Intuitively, this makes sense, since your opponent will never fold. You end up saving half your stack when the turn is a brick. That said, this depends on KNOWING that your opponent has the naked Ace, a very uncommon situation.