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  #11  
Old 12-26-2005, 12:45 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: Simple push bot question

[ QUOTE ]
Bump, do we have an answer to this yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave you my answer. I guess everyone doesn't agree.

I posted a similar hand where I pushed UTG 10-handed no ante with ATo, a loose table, and 6xBB and everyone said it was a good push.
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  #12  
Old 12-26-2005, 03:35 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: Simple push bot question

I think it's a close decision. My default would be to fold here. I'd prefer to push junk in MP or LP than a hand like 44 UTG. It really comes down to how tight people are. If it's going to take a big hand to get called (like AA-JJ, AK) then pushing is profitable. Something like AA-99, AK-AQ then it's very marginal. Add a few more hands and it's -EV. As for what pairs you'd push, well if we go with the middle range 44 is pretty much the same as 88. They both have roughly the same equity against AA-99, AK-AQ. 99 is slightly better. TT becomes profitable.

In sum, I'd fold. I think you've got enough chips to be a little more patient but I'd definitely be looking at stealing with position or pushing a decent hand next round.
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  #13  
Old 12-26-2005, 03:49 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: Simple push bot question

I have given the math for this several times before. Basically, it is chip EV+ to push 44 UTG 8-handed with 8xBB. If someone calls with over cards, it is about teh same EVwise as picking up the blinds.

This is fairly close, so you can fold based on strategic reasons, taste, fear, or whatever.
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  #14  
Old 12-26-2005, 04:20 PM
Copernicus Copernicus is offline
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Default Re: Simple push bot question

Given that its close EV wise I think you fold it. The more you push the more likely you are to be called later on, and Id rather save my pushes for when they are more +EV on their merits, and have retained a little FE because I havent shown a push before. As someone else said..push in later position with rags then 44 with so many players behind.
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  #15  
Old 12-26-2005, 04:30 PM
UncleSalty UncleSalty is offline
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Default Re: Simple push bot question

[ QUOTE ]
i think i'm pushing any pair, AT and up. That'll give you like 35% equity atleast, get called 35%, blinds will call more often, so i'll round to 40% so

60% you win 2 BB's for +1.2
40% you win 35% of 10BB pot. +3.5
you lose 65% of 8BB's -5.2
= not what i expected. Whoops, i thoguht this would be profitable. It appears i have to tighten up my pushing.

*note, unless i'm too un-sober to do correct math.

edit:

LEFT OUT A STEP.

40% * -1.7bb's + 60% * 1.2bb's
-0.68 + 0.72 = +0.04


Still think i [censored] something up. But atleast it confirmed to me that it's +cEV like i thoguoht.

i stand by AT+, any pair, KJ+, QJs.JTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the lose 65% piece of your math needs to be multiplied by the 40% chance they call.

Edit: NM, looks like you fixed it in the "left out a step"
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