After semi-bluffing and getting raised all-in, do I call?

paperboyNC · #1 06-16-2005, 12:43 PM

UTG is a TAG (ultra-tight) player. He has been making excellent reads all night and is up from his $20 buyin to about $32. I have about $50.

Home Game 0.25/0.50 NL Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 1 fold.

I called for implied odds. I figured that if I hit, I could take all of his money.

Flop: ($5.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50.

I call with a pair and backdoor straight and flush draws. I figure he could have AK and I could have the best hand.

Turn: ($10.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bet $10, UTG raises all-in $26.50, Hero ???.

After hitting my backdoor straight draw, I bet the pot on the turn hoping he'll fold. I was worried that if I check-raised he would be pot committed. He thought for a long time thinking outloud about whether or not I had a set and then went all-in. I have him covered.

Should I call or save my money?

amoeba · #2 06-16-2005, 12:55 PM

you have 13 outs if he has overpair.

do the math.

and I would fold preflop outof position and likely headsup with low suited connector.

if you put him on AK on the flop, raise the flop. it might buy you a free river.

michaliv · #3 06-16-2005, 01:04 PM

I would probably fold this preflop. You are only getting 1.7:1 odds. If he is a very tight player I don't think he is giving up his stack unless the flop hits him better than you. The flop call was loose against a tight player. he most likely has an overpair to the board. If this player is truely tight, I don't think he would bet w/ nothing. After calling the flop the turn bet was alright for a semi-bluff. When he moves in you have to try to put him on a hand. You may have the odds to call this as long as the chances of him having a set of nines is very remote. If you think that there is a chance that he does have the set of nines, I would fold. I think his most likely holding would be AA-QQ.

paperboyNC · #4 06-16-2005, 01:56 PM

I figured I was getting just under 3.0:1 from the pot and was a 2.3:1 underdog so I had to call.

He definitely didn't have a set because he wouldn't have thought that long. So the QQ-AA read is correct.

I called. He turned over KK and I hit a 7 on the river to take the pot.

derick · #5 06-16-2005, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a TAG (ultra-tight) player. He has been making excellent reads all night and is up from his $20 buyin to about $32. I have about $50.

Home Game 0.25/0.50 NL Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 1 fold.

I called for implied odds. I figured that if I hit, I could take all of his money.

Flop: ($5.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50.

I call with a pair and backdoor straight and flush draws. I figure he could have AK and I could have the best hand.

Turn: ($10.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bet $10, UTG raises all-in $26.50, Hero ???.

After hitting my backdoor straight draw, I bet the pot on the turn hoping he'll fold. I was worried that if I check-raised he would be pot committed. He thought for a long time thinking outloud about whether or not I had a set and then went all-in. I have him covered.

Should I call or save my money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, I'm *not* an expert so I'd appreciate more experienced posters commenting on my analysis.

You said he's a Ultra tight so his starting hand from UTG is restricted to a big pair AK, AQs. Not 66, 55, 33. Ultra tights don't raise UTG preflop with A9s, A6s, A3s, 78s or 99.

Conclusion: He doesn't have 2 pair and he doesn't have trips. He's either got AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or bluffing with AK, AQs maybe AJs

Your have 8 outs for a straight (2's, 7's), 2 outs for trips (6's) and 3 outs for 2 pair (5's).

You can consider your club outs a little bit dirty since they may make him a flush if he has AcKc so give yourself the equivalent of at least 13 clean outs of your 15 total outs.

So you know 6 of the 52 cards already leaving 46 cards of which you think of 13 as winners. That's at least 13 to 33 for $26.50 raise all in to $47 in the pot.

Plus he might be bluffing with AK AQs 20% of the time...

Easy call even though you probably won't win.

You probably won't win but you're getting enough to make this play profitable.

You want to ultra tight player to fear getting involved with you... You don't want the ultra tight player taking shots at you without getting looked up. You want him to get that "Oh shite" feeling in the pit of his stomach when he raises without the nuts and you can catch your suckout.

As a bonuses catching can put him on tilt.

You get to look like a loose action player who will play suited crap against a tight players AA, KK, QQ.

You then will get to pick up a bunch of small pots with garbage because the players fear you may have the nuts when crap flops.

Next time you have the nuts you get paid off big time thanks to the "I'm here to brawl!" advertsing your did here.

Comments?

derick

Edit:OOPS answers posted while I was composing my response.

paperboyNC · #6 06-16-2005, 02:25 PM

Derick,

I appreciate the detailed response. I really didn't think folding was an option. As you said, folding would show that I could get pushed off my big bets.

Calling -- win or lose -- shows that you need to be scare that anytime you play a hand with me you may lose your whole stack. And plus that I'm a little nuts.

I made this call pre-flop to shed my predictability. The Villian has been making perfect reads on me all night. I figured that he'd never put me on 6-4 the way I played this hand.

I only had to pay $16.50 to win the $47.

Maybe I typed that raise in wrong? He raised to $26.50 total.

elus2 · #7 06-16-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You then will get to pick up a bunch of small pots with garbage because the players fear you may have the nuts when crap flops.

Next time you have the nuts you get paid off big time thanks to the "I'm here to brawl!" advertsing your did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they fear you have the nuts when crap flops, then how do you get paid off when you do hit it.

amoeba · #8 06-16-2005, 02:36 PM

I think with these kind of hands you need to have a plan.

the key moment of this hand is the flop.

he actually played it pretty well. I think he was hoping for you to reraise him on the flop, thus the underbet.