"STOP BLUFFING STUPID!" (postflop aggression question)

[droolie]

I play at Party Poker .50/1 and have been quite successful there. I was up 700BB through 7000 hands. However I took my first sustained beating (-140BB through 1000 hands) this weekend that has me questioning my aggression level. I truly caught a very bad run of luck, big pocket pairs and flopped sets cracked almost every time in combination with not catching many draws even though I had the odds to draw. I won't bother posting those hands because I'm confident I played them correctly and just lost. That's poker I can live with it. That being said I don't think all of this downswing is just "bad luck" because there was another distinct situation that repeatedly occurred that I realized was costing me money. Specifically it was my habit of betting aggressively when I miss the flop. I'm concerned that I was being far too aggressive postflop and wound up paying for it big time.

Here's what I caught myself doing the majority of the time...

Whenever I raised a pot preflop, I tended to bet the flop if it was checked around to me, even if I missed the flop myself and was left with just two overcards. On the button I would bet if everyone checked to me even if I hadn't raised preflop. Especially on ragged flops or paired flops. Basically I was bluffing into 3+ players regulary. What happened? I won very few uncontested pots. I seemed to get at least one caller every time. I was drawing dead much of the time and I was reverse dominated so often that even when I hit my TPTK on the turn or river I'd lose to two pair. I also ran into many fishy players who either called down with as little as bottom pair or were slow playing monsters, calling all streets, letting me do all the betting until they raised me on the river.

Who else plays this aggressively? Should I stop doing this? For the last month I was quite successful using this type of aggressive betting to drive out weaker players. I would win enough pots uncontested that this technique was clearly profitable. This weekend I was incredibly unsuccessful using this approach and it has me wondering if I was just getting lucky previously when I was able to bully so many pots or if I was just unlucky this weekend.

My bible, SSH, does not discuss bluffing much and is not clear what to do when you miss the flop with overcards or even if you only flop middle or bottom pair with an overcard kicker and everyone checks to you. It clearly recommends aggressive play when you probably have the best hand or are drawing to the probable best hand. Are you just supposed to check if you are not drawing to a "monster" like a flush or straight? After everyone shows weakness by checking, drawing to Top Pair and representing a big pocket pair after raising preflop seemed like a sound strategy until this weekend. I know drawing to TP is a weak draw but betting ragged board and paired boards hard seemed better than merely checking and folding.

To pull myself out of the downward spiral I have moderated my style and become far more passive on the flop. In small pots I have begun checking it through with just over cards and no backdoor draws and waiting for betting opportunities in which I have conected with the flop in some meaningful way. I even put a sign above my montitor that says "STOP BLUFFING STUPID!" to remind me that bluffing into 3+ players was killing my bankroll. I hate playing this weak tight way though and am afraid I'm going off the passive deep end in response to one bad downswing. What do you guys think about bluffing at this low level with multiple competitors when the flop is checked to you? Should I only try it with one or two opponents or can I be successful over the long haul regardless of the number?

I will post some examples when I get home and have access to my pokertracker databank.

[btspider]

bluffing topic

didn't read all of it. if you were overly aggressive successfully earlier, you may have been catching cold-decked opponents more than your fair share. welcome to the world of variance. reanalyze your play, but try not to make radical changes just due to recent results. post hands, play well.

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To pull myself out of the downward spiral I have moderated my style and become far more passive on the flop

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if this is an adjustment.. ok.. if this is weak-tight play.. not ok.. when in a severe downswing, you can tighten up a little preflop with possibly marginal, big variance hands (say Axs UTG if you don't have a table read), but try not to overcorrect postflop.

[meanjean]

Wow...I was just thinking the same thing and was going back to re-read SSH. I do remember some bluffing ideas from either WLLH or Higer's book saying never try to run a bluff threw (through?) more than 2 players. How often is that opportunity there?

My swing was much less about 25 bb this morning. This is minor, I know. So began thinking that maybe it is best let others draw to thier overcards and I'll bet top pair and good draws. But at the same time I've been wondering why poker tracker puts me at TA-N instead of TA-A. Maybe it's because in my normal game I don't bet in those types of positions you describe.

Hopefully we can get some experts, smart people, handsome people's opinions on this.

[imaptone]

[ QUOTE ]
I was up 700BB through 7000 hands

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that this is an unsustainable win rate. My poor math skills say you are winning at a rate of 10BB/100. IMO you have started off on a hot streak that is due to cool down.

I know some posters are not fans of WLLH, but it does address the bluffing issue for low limit holdem games. It says: Bluffing is rarely correct at low limit games.
I concur.

[jrz1972]

Overcards after a pfr are tough, and so much depends on the table and your opponents that it's hard to generalize.

My default play is auto-bet the flop. Part of what I'm trying to achieve is to fold out enough people so that a turn bet will win for me if I miss. Partly I'm trying to disguise my hand a bit if I catch on the turn. And partly I'm trying for free card if I'm in late position.

Also, there are table image issues involved. I don't want to fall into the habit of only betting when I hit and always checking behind when I miss. I'm willing to chuck the occasional SB if it makes me less readable. (Whenever I see somebody check/fold after a pfr on a ragged flop, I make a note of it; I assume at least some others do the same).

Obviously I don't autobet into 6 opponents, and I dont bet against calling stations who I know I can't fold out. And I don't necessarily follow up with bluffs on the turn or river depending on how many people (and who) are still around.

So far it seems like I've been successful with this line, but I'm interested in seeing how others handle these.

[Frog321]

I often end up debating the same issue. I tend to be aggressive but I am slowly learning when to keep pushing against one or maybe two opponents and when to give it up unimproved on the turn or river. I think I still lose too much trying to pound passive players into folding while they refuse to drop their second or even low pair. I seem to have sessions where I will win many pots when no one else hits through my aggression and others where its completely the opposite- I spew chips with my overcards without hitting or getting that last guy to fold.

[77rules]

[ QUOTE ]
... Whenever I raised a pot preflop, I tended to bet the flop if it was checked around to me, even if I missed the flop myself and was left with just two overcards. On the button I would bet if everyone checked to me even if I hadn't raised preflop. Especially on ragged flops or paired flops. Basically I was bluffing into 3+ players regulary.

[/ QUOTE ]
SSH doesn't have a section on bluffing per se, but it does discuss how part of the way you win is by forcing better hands out of the pot. It also discusses how you should play overcards, that is, as a weak draw.

In almost all books though, it says that against bad players, you will have to show down the best hand most of the time. And you'll find plenty of bad players at the micro limits, as you know - we call them calling stations.

Sklansky discusses bluffing in his books, but what it comes down to is this - you can't hope to bluff more than two people, and even that is a long shot.

With all that said, if you have overcards and you've raised pre flop, you have to bet. You'll catch an overcard on the turn or river 25 percent of the time. And it makes sure you'll get plenty of action when you do hit your monster, because they don't know if you're bluffing or not.

[holdemfan]

It is always a part of your choosing to either check, bet, raise, and fold to evaluate the players in the hand. If you have players who will call until they are sure they didn’t hit you must put that into your equation. Maybe raise with a smaller range of hands and fold some sooner. Do not become the player they all know will fold quickly. You can put a few more check raises on the flop in to get them nervous about your checks. A check raise bluff on occasion will be effective for many reasons of making them think more about chasing, free cards and less predictability. If they know you want to bet they will wait and let you. If you wait for the BB it is less tempting for them to call unless they hit. At that time you may have made a real hand. If you do hit they may be more apt to call or more worried thinking you may have wanted to check raise the flop. What ever you do don't do it all the time. Keep them guessing. What is your VP$IP%? If you are over 20% you could improve. If over 25% you play to many hands.
Biggest reason players lose in the long run is going too far on hands that don’t win. You can win massive pots but don’t fight for the ones the odds aren’t worth more bets. It will bleed you bankroll.
In my humble opinion,
Holdemfan

[Goon2]

I never "bluff" in the sense I bet holding 63o and the board is AAKQ. "Bluffing", as Lee Jones says is WLLHE, is a bad idea because you're playing no fold-em hold-em.

I think you're talking about how to play Overcards. As Ed says, they are very difficult. Playing them well depends on a lot of things, namely the size of the pot and whether the board is ragged. If the pot is big, no timid players are raising, the board is ragged and I think I can move someone out of the hand with a raise, I'll bet/raise my overcards. But before I do that, I'll need the odds to continue. With two cards to come, I need to be getting at least 7:1 to continue.

I have had the same problem -- balancing aggression with stupidity. If you're being aggressive just for the sake of aggression, something is wrong. Rather than artificially slow yourself down, be sure to have a rational reason and set of circumstances to continue with overcards. If you do that, you'll keep yourself from veering into neutral or negative EV plays.

Play well.

[Entity]

My head hurts from playing too much Halo today, but I've got one (small) comment: often when you autobet the flop with AKo on a board of 927, you aren't bluffing. You're betting with the best hand.

This is different occasionally against a field of 6 or 7 players, but against a field of 3, you'll often have weaker aces (A8, A5, etc.) calling along, and hands like JTo, QJ, etc. just straggling for no good reason.

Autobetting isn't always the right move with overcards, but often it is.

Rob