5/10 hand vs El Diablo

[AJo Go All In]

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #921880101: Hold'em No Limit ($5/$10) - 2004/12/04 -
03:13:38 (ET)
Table 'Kippes' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: MustSeeFlops ($745 in chips)
Seat 2: yahtzem ($2153 in chips)
Seat 3: freedomfight ($590 in chips)
Seat 4: thorladen ($1083 in chips)
Seat 5: CordeleRele ($3507 in chips)
Seat 6: GMoney26 ($310.90 in chips)
Seat 7: clipset ($935 in chips)
Seat 8: ackbleh ($990 in chips)
Seat 9: akshawnd ($4620.95 in chips)
akshawnd: posts small blind $5
MustSeeFlops: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yahtzem [Jc Kc]
yahtzem: calls $10
freedomfight: folds
thorladen: folds
CordeleRele: folds
GMoney26: folds
clipset: folds
ackbleh: folds
akshawnd: calls $5
MustSeeFlops: checks
*** FLOP *** [Td 9d Qd]
akshawnd: checks
MustSeeFlops: checks
yahtzem: bets $40
akshawnd: calls $40
MustSeeFlops: calls $40
*** TURN *** [Td 9d Qd] [8s]
akshawnd: bets $100
MustSeeFlops: folds
yahtzem: calls $100
*** RIVER *** [Td 9d Qd 8s] [Qh]
akshawnd: bets $250
yahtzem: ???

[creedofhubris]

Tough one.

My plan is to have to avoid facing a big bet on a hand like this. So when I see a monotone flop and I don't have that suit, I pretty much always check the flop to keep the pot small.

The exception would be a raised pot, or a really awful opponent. This isn't a raised pot or a bad opponent.

In this situation, and in absence of a detailed knowlege of Diablo's play, I fold to the river bet, since both the flush and the boat seem like likely holdings. (The flush moreso than the boat.)

[Chris Daddy Cool]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($745)
<font color="C00000">AJo Go All In ($2153)</font>
UTG+1 ($590)
MP1 ($1083)
MP2 ($3507)
MP3 ($310.90)
CO ($935)
Button ($990)
<font color="C00000">SB <font color="purple">(El Diablo)</font> ($4620.95)</font>

Preflop: AJo Go All In is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
AJo Go All In calls $10, <font color="666666">6 folds</font>, SB <font color="purple">(El Diablo)</font> completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($30) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
El Diablo checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">AJo Go All In bets $40</font>, El Diablo calls $40, BB calls $40.

Turn: ($150) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">El Diablo bets $100</font>, BB folds, AJo Go All In calls $100.

River: ($350) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

El Diablo bets $250, AJo Goes All in ???

[bunky9590]

I probably call here, He could have a flush, He could Ad Q just as easy.

Pushing is not what I would want to do.

[partygirluk]

Could you bluff raise here representing a FH? Could you have played a set this way on the flop/turn? Can you rule out El Diabloe having a boat? Do you think he could fold a flush here?

[Popinjay]

I am very sure Diablo is bluffing here.

[PlanoPoker]

Since El Diablo plays very well, I'd say he should only bet the river with a flush, a boat, or a bluff. If he just had the 1-card straight or trip Q's for example, check-calling on the river is much more profitable. With that said I don't think he is bluffing here, but betting for value. He has a big flush, and he still chooses to bet the paired board on the river because there is a 1-card straight that will pay him off. The reason he doesn't have a boat or a small flush by the way is because he would have bet out on the flop with two pair or a small flush, or check-raised. Check-calling is much less likely.

Lastly, he knows his river bet is +EV, but if he is raised he will fold, because you will sometimes have a boat here. I probably wouldn't have come up that reasoning on the spot though, and would have just folded.

[Prevaricator]

Whats wrong with raising the turn? If you think diablo would raise the flop with a flush, you can be pretty confident your hand is good here, although he could definately play back at you with the Jd.

[bogey]

i definitely call, i think he would have bet out or raised the flop with the flush given so many cards would kill his action. fullhouse is a possibility but not that likely. I also think he could be value betting his bare J given youd check so many hands behind given the board. JQ or J10 seem like real possibilities to me here, but I think the most likely hand is A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J o.

That being said, I would have made it about 250 on the turn. He might still call with a J and if he has the flush youll probably found out instead of facing a bigger bet on the river.