QQ, is this a fold on the flop?

#1 11-30-2005, 10:32 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, CO folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Did I give up a pot to JJ/QJ/KJ or lower pocket pair, or did I avoid a potentially expensive punishing run by AT/AJ/AA/KK/AK/AQ?

#2 11-30-2005, 10:37 PM

I think most donks would actually slow-play trip-aces. I think you are ahead here a lot. I would not give up on the flop. Bet/call the turn & check/call the river.

Aaron_ · #3 11-30-2005, 10:43 PM

You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

#4 12-01-2005, 12:41 AM

Thanks, I felt I was too far behind. I had no read so I had no idea if it was a bluff or not. I was worried about trash like AT coming in and making a full house on the turn.

Eeegah · #5 12-01-2005, 12:51 AM

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You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

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(warning: haven't played in over a month)

I think we need to look at why this guy is raising here. He's not raising a flush draw as that would be silly. There's no straight draws either. There's two aces on the flop after you raised and he's telling you he isn't afraid. He can't have a worse two pair. So what's he raising with?

Unless he's a very tricky player, likes to slowplay JJ or is or some other kind of bluffer I'm pretty sure you're behind at least a set of sixes, with either 2 1/2 outs or just a half-out. Either way you probably can't even see the turn. Sucks and it feels weak, but that's my trying-to-be-objective take.

#6 12-01-2005, 12:53 AM

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You don't have odds to call if you're behind, and you're certainly reraising if you're ahead. This play depends a whole lot on your read, but if you don't have one, I'd normally give this up.

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(warning: haven't played in over a month)

I think we need to look at why this guy is raising here. He's not raising a flush draw as that would be silly. There's no straight draws either. There's two aces on the flop after you raised and he's telling you he isn't afraid. He can't have a worse two pair. So what's he raising with?

Unless he's a very tricky player, likes to slowplay JJ or is or some other kind of bluffer I'm pretty sure you're behind at least a set of sixes, with either 2 1/2 outs or just a half-out. Either way you probably can't even see the turn. Sucks and it feels weak, but that's my trying-to-be-objective take.

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Are you serious? Don't we want to get this to showdown??

Eeegah · #7 12-01-2005, 12:59 AM

We're looking at paying 2 1/2BB to win the 3.25BB in the pot (less rake) and his 2 BB, so 5.25BB total. We'll have to win almost half the time for this to be profitable. You're free to convince me we will, but you'll be a while.

SoftcoreRevolt · #8 12-01-2005, 01:06 AM

Why wouldn't he raise a flush draw? Do we have a read on him that he knows what pot equity is? Of course not.

Donks love to bet and raise flush draws, they don't understand relative position, because they suck. It isn't the most likely holding here, but you'll see raises from people thinking that you don't have an ace and that their 6 is good, or 77-TT on top of the flush draws.

Plus as has been said, slow playing trips and sets is a federal law, he raised the flop.

Eeegah · #9 12-01-2005, 01:23 AM

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Donks love to bet and raise flush draws, they don't understand relative position, because they suck. It isn't the most likely holding here, but you'll see raises from people thinking that you don't have an ace and that their 6 is good, or 77-TT on top of the flush draws.

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More than half the time? What you're describing is almost the exact opposite of the passive play I expect from a typical cold-calling donk. The ones I know like to call raises, not make them.

The guy could be doing something screwy, but without anyone coming along for the ride to pad the pot I'd rather let someone else pay up to find out if this guy's a nut.

Or maybe I'm just rusty, who knows.

SoftcoreRevolt · #10 12-01-2005, 03:03 AM

Loose Passive doesn't mean never raises, or even bluffs.

How likely is he to have an Ace? Only two are left, so, are you saying he has an ace here half the time based on one raise and that info? If fish weren't so prone to slow playing hands like this, I'd say that an ace was more likely than a 6 or a flush draw here, but they just are. Add that in and the fact that mid pocket pairs are very likely cold calling hands, and I think we are good here half the time.

With only one ace on the board this situation changes and I'm getting rid of this, since now there's more aces out, and a worse bluffing chance. Fish don't bluff alot, but they do like to make those sort of WPT or WSOP type bets when there's scary boards like that.

This situation is really close though since the pot is so small that its almost a raise or fold situation. But, I think situations like these will see value in just calling because you'll see some odd hands show down.

But in these cases, reads help ever so much. If I've seen him make plays like this with 6s and pockets, I am raising. If I've seen him make bluffs like this, I'd rather just call.

Oh and our Queens will save us 5% of the time too. Woo