Set of JJ on scary river vs. Loose, aggressive, tricky opponent

Garland · #1 04-08-2005, 08:40 PM

Location: Ultimate Bet
Stakes: $2/$4 NL
Players: Most are loose and moderately aggressive. However, the main villian here is very loose aggressive. He raises a lot of marginal hands preflop, and bets the whole pot on the flop virtually every time. He is capable of bluff betting and firing heavy shells with very little or nothing. If he sense weakness, he will pounce. Specifically, his numbers are 28% VP$IP and 10.04 PF Raise %.

By the river, there's $320 in the pot, and I have ~$225. So how would you play this hand at the river, and what do you think about my play thus far?

All comments appreciated.

Garland

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (10 handed) converter

Garland ($371.60)
BB ($435)
UTG ($351)
UTG+1 ($371.60)
UTG+2 ($245)
MP1 ($394)
MP2 ($217.70)
MP3 ($220.30)
CO ($154.10)
Button ($435.90)

Preflop: Garland is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+1 raises to $14, 5 folds, Button calls $14, Garland calls $12, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($56) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Garland bets $44, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Button calls $44.

Turn: ($144) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Garland bets $88, Button calls $88.

River: ($320) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Garland ????

TrailofTears · #2 04-09-2005, 12:03 AM

What do you want to hear here? How to stop him from pushing with his King? No amount of a blocking bet will stop his money going in there, and you pushing will only allow him to get away from an inferior hand here. I check-call, but this is definitely a tricky situation.

I expect him to have some sort of two pair, but I am not sure of his calling requirements PF, which perhaps you could give some enlightenment on.

-Trail

TheWorstPlayer · #3 04-09-2005, 01:13 AM

Against this player, it seems like you have too strong a hand to fold to a push. If you bet a lot, you are going to be PCed anyways, so you might as well bet a little and hope that he reads you for weakness. So, either check, if you think that will induce a big bet, or bet small with an obvious blocker, saying you don't have a K, and hope he pushes over you with his AQ, TT, whatever.

Garland · #4 04-09-2005, 09:11 PM

I bet $150, and took away his potential push on the river, while value betting my set vs. two pair type hands. He thought about it for a good 15 seconds or so (good news?), and folded. *whew* Note that this basically pot commits me as well as I only have $75 left.

I couldn't take the risk of checking it to him, letting him take the initiative and making me possibly fold the best hand. At the same time, I knew he wasn't paying for a gutshot on the turn, and I thought at the very least, he would spring to life with a raise on 4th street with KQ.

I thought this was a difficult, but necessary move.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland

soah · #5 04-09-2005, 09:16 PM

I'd bet pot on the turn so that you can push on any river card without a second thought.

DrPublo · #6 04-09-2005, 09:18 PM

The fact that you call villain LAG and he was CALLING, not BETTING the whole way has me concerned. It suggests that he thinks he's ahead, and probably with more than just AK. AJ or AA or even KQ, perhaps?

As a result, the K might scare him as well, since he probably thought he was ahead. Check and hope he checks it back?

The Doc

Garland · #7 04-09-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet pot on the turn so that you can push on any river card without a second thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that you gave me something to think about. Betting enough on the turn so that the river decision is a no brainer. Thanks! On the surface it seems like a great idea. It gives me less problems on the river on the 8 scare cards that can come (given I'm not scared of any heart).

However, do I really want to push out an inferior hand in this spot? I feel that $88 is an amount that something like a weak A will call, while $144 would be too rich for his tastes. Something else to think about...

Garland

soah · #8 04-09-2005, 11:01 PM

The guy has already put $58 in the pot. If all he has is TPNK then I'd be thankful that he's already donated so much to me with [censored] for a hand. If he has enough of a hand to call another $90 (and be borderline pot-committed) then he probably has enough of a hand to call $140. Scare cards on the river here will be -EV for you regardless of what he has. (And I'd count the remaining aces as borderline scare cards as well.)

SossMan · #9 04-09-2005, 11:10 PM

group 1 garland strikes again.

I like your line here the whole way. Checking and calling the river is okay too, though.

Garland · #10 04-10-2005, 01:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The guy has already put $58 in the pot. If all he has is TPNK then I'd be thankful that he's already donated so much to me with [censored] for a hand. If he has enough of a hand to call another $90 (and be borderline pot-committed) then he probably has enough of a hand to call $140. Scare cards on the river here will be -EV for you regardless of what he has. (And I'd count the remaining aces as borderline scare cards as well.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian would have raised with two-pair hands, if not on the flop, then certainly on the turn, so the river A doesn't bother me. Button gave great consideration on the river before deciding to laydown, so I firmly put him on AQ (if not then certainly JT). This is one of the hands I don't want him to fold. Perhaps the sudden turn increase to $144 would be enough to chase him away.

Garland