Playing 77 w/ Ragged Flop?

[srt19170]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero ???

What's the line here? I'm baffled as to what SB's bet could mean given his PF cold-call and the ragged flop. I'm also concerned that CO is going to raise behind me with high pockets. On the other hand, I've got a solid two pair. Is it too weak to fold here? If I call (raise?), what's my line for the rest of the hand?

-- Scott

[ncboiler]

I think calling is a bad option. You are probably ahead of the SB. Call a raise and be careful from there.

[zuluking]

No brainer, raise.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
No brainer, raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I have no brain, so bear with me.

Is this a raise for value?

I've got a PF raiser (CO) who I would estimate is on high pockets 50% of the time. I've got SB who cold-called 2 PF and leads out on the flop. How often am I really ahead in this situation? And if I am ahead, any face card on the turn or river is going to put me behind, and I only have 2 outs to improve, so I have to discount my position somewhat.

And if I raise, what's my line for the rest of the hand if they call down? (I assume I would fold or call/fold unimproved if CO re-raises.)

-- Scott

[fairness]

estimating a high pocket pair for a preflop raise 50% of the time is pretty steep. more often you'll see AK, AQ, AJ, KQ because these hands come up more often than pocket pairs. small blind could easily be betting a flush draw. your hand is vulnerable, you want to raise to thin the field and give your hand a better chance of winning at showdown.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]

estimating a high pocket pair for a preflop raise 50% of the time is pretty steep. more often you'll see AK, AQ, AJ, KQ because these hands come up more often than pocket pairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

After my posting above I thought the same sort of thing. Especially because the raiser is in CO. (Although in this case from PT I knew that CO had only previously raised with pockets.) Has anyone gone through and calculated these likelihoods from (say) SSHE?

[ QUOTE ]

small blind could easily be betting a flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't credit most PP players with betting out a flush draw, do you?

[ QUOTE ]

your hand is vulnerable, you want to raise to thin the field and give your hand a better chance of winning at showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can I really expect someone on AK or a flush draw to fold to a flop raise? If there hadn't been a PF raise, I would clearly raise in this situation to try to thin the field, but with the PF raise and the cold-call/bet from SB, I just don't think I have any chance of knocking anyone out.

-- Scott