NL Preflop Question

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
there are plenty of players that can be labeled tight who will not fold AK unimproved if they put a lot of their chips in already. He's getting 2 to 1, and if both his overcards are live he'll win just under 1/3 of the time. This should be good enough for someone with only 200 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they never fold AK in those situations then they are not really tight, and that is even more true if you hit your Q and he still calls allin with JJ/TT. If you have read Ed Miller's GSIH and its short stack strategy, he advocates that if you raise w/AK and your remaining stack is approximately the size of the pot and you are checked to then push even if you don't hit. But in this case, he only has 1/3 of his stack in and he isn't checked to. I play in 1K/2K nl games all the time with players who are otherwise tight in starting requirements but who can't fold AA/KK when someone hits a set on a flush draw board because they always think someone is making a move on them. These are the types of players I want to play suited connectors and pairs against when they raise because if I hit the flop big I can often get their whole stack. And I look for situations like that rather than getting AA/KK myself.

[Frank Zappy]

Fold.

Being offered an even money proposition where I'm even money only 2/6 possible hands: TT, JJ; otherwise I'm dominated by AK, QQ or KK gives me 3 outs, and completely toasted by AA (in a pure mathematical sense, of course).

Is it me or is short stack and tight with a bet like that is almost always AA?

[ChuckyB]

There are 6 combinations of TT...
There are 30 combinations of JJ, QQ, KK, AA & AK (considering I hold AQ)

Fold

[Frank Zappy]

I've read the replies and I don't see the value in computing this problem out to a decimal place, certainly not in real time. I know I can't do it.

I do a rough guesstimate, and act accordingly: 2 hands a coinflip + 4 I'm toast= do not accept an even money bet.