Is it OK to fold here

[Smasharoo]

1. the pot is huge


Not relative to the odds you need to call.


2. you might be ahead


Of what? What hand caps pre-flop, then three-bets here that you're ahead of?


3. if you're behind you have a chance (given it's a small one to improve)


Not enough of one to justify calling. That's the point. Calling here is more stubborness than anything else.


it's the 3 of these combined that makes folding wrong. strong betting alone is not enough of a reason to drop this. especially on the flop when it's one more small bet back to you.


It's allways going to one small bet back to you when you're considering folding. I fail to see the signifigance of that.

Again let me ask what you think that you're ahead of 20% of the time?

[pointcount]

based on fairnesses calculations of having 1:5 from the pot, villan may have:

AA + 1 lose
KK + 1 lose
QQ - HERO - draw
JJ + 1 win

Assuming that villan doesn't have a set but holds one of these overpairs (equally likely) then calling down IS the correct play here isn't it?.

Maybe I am stubborn but I would hardly ever lay down QQ...

[fairness]

you don't know what your opponent has, that's the point. strong betting does not mean he has AA or KK, i've called down and been shown AK plently of times, JJ is also a very real possibility. the pot is huge, which means you can play looser than you normally would.


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it's the 3 of these combined that makes folding wrong

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you can't look at each of these one at a time and decide folding is wrong.

if you fold every time you think you're behind, you are getting bluffed out a lot. here - ed's post on pot odds

[ QUOTE ]
You have a hand that is 14-to-1 against to improve.. but it might be the best hand. What should you do? Well, I can't tell you. But I can tell you that IN GENERAL, when the pot is big, you should continue and when the pot is small, you should fold.


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[Smasharoo]

Ed's talking about multiway pots with marginal hands.

He's not talking about hands that are heads up, capped pre-flop.

Is it possible you're ahead? Sure. If you call down heads up evevrytime it's possible that you're ahead, you're going to lose a lot of money.

If this was even three handed it's an easy call. It's not, though, it's heads up.

Saying you've been shown AK lots of times has nothing to do with if this call is +EV or not.

Given the information provided it seems pretty clearly EV to me. Your ratinale for it being +EV seems to consist of "I've seen lots of people play AK like this".

Make an argument based on the information you have. Convince me.

[fairness]

what i'm saying is that given the size of the pot, the chance that you're ahead, and the fact that you're not drawing dead makes calling down the right move. paying off the 2.5 bigbets to show this one down isn't a huge mistake given the size of the pot. folding the best hand in a pot this big is.

[Smasharoo]

based on fairnesses calculations of having 1:5 from the pot, villan may have:

AA + 1 lose
KK + 1 lose
QQ - HERO - draw
JJ + 1 win


This assumes that villian is just as likely to cap heads up with JJ as he is with AA or KK. Remember the cap pre-flop is a value bet, it's allready heads up.

Now, even assuming he caps with JJ heads up PF, he three bets with JJ on this flop?

Convince me that's likely 25% of the time.

[fairness]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, even assuming he caps with JJ heads up PF, he three bets with JJ on this flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

you'd have to be crazy not to 3-bet that flop w/ JJ

[Smasharoo]

what i'm saying is that given the size of the pot, the chance that you're ahead, and the fact that you're not drawing dead makes calling down the right move. paying off the 2.5 bigbets to show this one down isn't a huge mistake given the size of the pot. folding the best hand in a pot this big is.


No, folding the best hand is only bad if you have the best hand enough of the time to justify calling without implied odds to make your set.

Any time you're heads up there's a chance you have the best hand. The question is how much of a chance that you have the best hand, not if it's ever possible.

The pot at the end assuming you check call all the way ends up at what, 5pf, 3 on the flop, 4 more for the turn and the river, so 12.

You're going to put in 2.5 to win 12, so you have to have the best hand 20% of the time unimproved. Some of the time you're going to spike a set, some of the time when you're best, a redraw will beat you.

The only argument with any merit here is that when you spike a set, you can extract mutliple BB on the turn or river. Even with that potential, I think it's a clear fold.

[Smasharoo]

you'd have to be crazy not to 3-bet that flop w/ JJ


I guess you'd have to be crazier not to cap with QQ then, right?

[StellarWind]

I count 16.5 SB in the pot after the flop 3-bet.

I think that's enough to call and try and spike a queen at 21.5-1 (not 22.5 because you believe he has no queen) against his overpair. The implied odds should cover you considering that you also have some possibility of receiving a free card on the turn.

What to do about the turn is not easy. The pot is big and you certainly could be ahead of JJ or tied with QQ. Maybe he even has AK.

The major point of this hand is that you should never be in this situation. Raising the flop is a serious error. Call the flop and keep calling as long as the blanks keep coming. Raising gains 1 SB when you are ahead and finish ahead. It loses 1 SB when you are ahead and get outdrawn by AK. It loses 2 SB when a better hand 3-bets you. It loses 3 SB when you get called and checkraised on the turn by a better hand. If you decide to bail out you risk losing the entire pot to a bluff. Actually 3-betting QQ/JJ is not really even bluffing. It's just a play.

The pot is too big to fold. Raising is not for value. Call him down.