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#1
11-25-2004, 05:01 PM
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Is it OK to fold here
Pacific 1/2 game 10-handed
MP has played reasonable well until we clashed in this pot, about half an hour after I sat down at the table. Hero is button and holds QQ Preflop: 2 calls, MP raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, everybody folds to MP who capps, Hero calls. Flop: T 7 6 (rainbow) MP bets, Hero raises, MP 3-bets, Hero... Call him down or fold? Maybe cap the flop and fold if he leads the turn? If I just call the flop he is guaranteed to lead the turn and I would then have to decide whether to call him down or not. 
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#2
11-25-2004, 05:45 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
I'd just call the flop and call him down. He's playing like he's got AA or KK, but I wouldn't feel confident enough about that to fold. I hate throwing away money HU when it looks like two overpairs are clashing, so I'd just call down and hope he was aggressive with JJ, really aggressive with AK, or you spike a Q. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#4
11-25-2004, 06:50 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
I think you can call and lay down on the turn if you don't hit a queen. You can also try capping and see if that causes him to slow down on the turn, you can probably lay it down if he still leads into you.
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#5
11-25-2004, 07:22 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
I think you can call and lay down on the turn if you don't hit a queen. Why? You don't have the odds to hit a two outer. If you think you're behind and you donn't have the odds to call, why would you?
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#6
11-25-2004, 07:46 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can call and lay down on the turn if you don't hit a queen. Why? You don't have the odds to hit a two outer. If you think you're behind and you donn't have the odds to call, why would you? [/ QUOTE ] You're right I thought it was slightly +EV, but you're getting 15:1 on a 22.5:1 propositon with the implied odds not quite making up the difference, unless you think you can get 4 BB from him if you hit (which I don't think is completely unlikely however.) Maybe if you add the number of times that you're ahead (ie overplayed JJ) it begins to be +EV.
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#7
11-25-2004, 08:19 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
if you call the flop there will be 16 big bets, calling the turn and river will cost you 2 big bets and he will put in 2 big bets along with you. so you're effective odds on a call down are 8 + 2 = 10 to 2 or 5 to 1. do you think you're ahead here more than 20% of the time? combined with the chance of hitting a queen, and picking up a few more big bets.... i'd probably call this one down. the better line might be to cap the flop hoping it slows him down on the turn so you can take a free card. i'm definitely showing this one down though. btw, i think folding on the flop is really crap.
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#8
11-25-2004, 08:40 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
if you call the flop there will be 16 big bets 8. You see, in holdem, the preflop and flop bets are 1/2 a BB each, not a full BB each. That might be why you think folding is bad here.
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#9
11-25-2004, 08:47 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
it's pretty clear that i meant small bets, if you understand how to calculate effective odds you'll notice i took it into account, where do you think i got the 8 + 2 from?
i'm pretty sure folding here is bad.
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#10
11-25-2004, 09:01 PM
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Re: Is it OK to fold here
1. the pot is huge
2. you might be ahead 3. if you're behind you have a chance (given it's a small one to improve) it's the 3 of these combined that makes folding wrong. strong betting alone is not enough of a reason to drop this. especially on the flop when it's one more small bet back to you.
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