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#52
05-18-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: It really is just a game (WAY too long)
The correct answer to:
[ QUOTE ] perfect to break an awkward silence in a meeting... [/ QUOTE ] is.... "You know what I havent had it a while? (pause briefly). Big league chew" 
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#53
05-18-2005, 04:08 PM
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Re: It really is just a game (WAY too long)
This shows the prob for each square. Interesting stuff. Even has a Markov matrix at the end.
http://www.tkcs-collins.com/truman/m...html#Long_term
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#54
05-18-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: It really is just a game (WAY too long)
I think an additional factor to consider in addition to Luck\Skill is Open\Closed.
Chess is a completely Open game. All information about the current state of the game is available. The only luck present is the player starting order. Yahtzee is another open game. Random chance is present on every turn. Most other games have varying degrees of closed-ness. In poker the player's hole cards are the closed items; common cards, up cards, betting actions and the like are the open items. Closed games are often confused as lucky games by people who do not understand the skill involved. However, the real impact of closed-ness is to lengthen the period of time necessary for skill to overcome luck. In order for the skill of the player to become the determining factor of a game that has both closed-ness and random elements, many games must be played. Ranking Luck/Skill and Closed/Open on scales of 0-10 for a single game/round we have: Chess (10,10) Yahtzee (3,10) Bridge (6,6) NL Poker (4,3) Limit Poker (5,4) The Luck/Skill ratings for poker games seem pretty low. That's a result of the random events that make up a single hand of poker. If the game was a 10 hour contest, then these games would look like this: Chess (10,10) Yahtzee (7,10) Bridge (9,7) NL Poker (8,5) Limit Poker (8,5) Basically, skill values increase as random events balance out and openness increases as you learn about your opponents. I think bridge has skill determine the outcome of the event more often. This is not a commentary on the skill of bridge vs. the skill of poker but more of a result of the skill necessary to utilize the open-ness of the game in the later stages of the hand.
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#56
05-18-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: It really is just a game (WAY too long)
Nice Post.
At the risk of taking this thread back on topic: In your OP you essentially made a correlation between complexity (ability to gain expertise) and skill (amount expertise impacts the outcome). [ QUOTE ] I think it could also be said that the greater the edge available in a game, the more difficult it is to reach the higher levels a great amount of effort and study would be required. [/ QUOTE ] This correlation doesn't exist. For instance, Tic-tac-toe is pretty much 100% skill and an expert will beat a beginner pretty much all the time. However, it only takes about 10 minutes to go from beginner to expert. Poker, in fact, is at the other end of the spectrum. A beginner can beat an expert a large percentage of the time, yet it takes a lot of skill/knowledge/talent to become an expert at poker. I would argue that many luck-heavy games require more expertise to consistently win because you're fighting the luck factor. In poker, I believe limit takes more expertise than NL to consistently win because the luck factor is higher. NL is the "Cadillac of Poker" precisely because it has a lower luck factor and the difference between skilled players and unskilled players is therefore greater. Note: this is very similar to the argument that Malumth makes in his Essays. IMO poker is very close to chess on the "amount of expertise available" continuum. However, it's way to the luck side on the other - way more luck than (competitively played) monopoly or stratego for instance. One more point. The extremely heavy luck factor is why we're always talking about variance here. You can play 10s of thousands of hands of poker and not know if you're better than your average opponent or not. There aren't very many other games that have so much luck that it could outweigh skill for 10s of thousands of games.
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#59
05-18-2005, 05:23 PM
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I\'m really enjoying this but
My old cat just took a nasty dump in the box about 5' from the computer. FOUL! DAMN! Worse than one of my Father's Sat morning tap beer wallops from my childhood. Yes kids, some our Dad's drank tap beer. And anyone who had to use the bathroom knew it.
I'm making a vodka collins run for myself. Looking forward to some fresh air and seeing where it goes.
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