Do we take the free card?

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent is 55/7/0.9 and 36/53 after 80 hands.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks

Do we take the free card, or do we try to get him to fold whatever he holds? I don't see people fold a pair HU often, but it happens on occasions. Here we're likely to have a ton of outs in case he calls. Two problems with betting. He goes to showdown often, and he may check-raise us.

Also, do you raise QJo UTG in the average 5/10 game?

[/ QUOTE ]

*Grunch*

Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play, and we have 9 outs to the 2nd nut flush, which should compensate for the number of times we're check-raised in this spot.

Can't answer for 5/10, but I consider QJo a marginal hand here. OK to raise, depending on table conditions and your postflop skills.

[POKhER]

I dont think he's folding so after reanalysing the hand i think i may take the free card actually.

He isn't folding so we must improve and i dont see us doing it often enough to call a river bet from him(Say he bets this river 100% to make it easier).

We must fold if we miss and can raise if we hit or call. Say we call.

We have AT MOST 9+6 outs so 15 being about 1 in 3, 30% we will win the pot and 60% we will lose it due to fold.

He'd have to fold 20% of time to make this +EV right? And i dont think he folds 1 in 5...

Also i said we have 15outs, prob have less and i also said he bets the river 100% which he probably doesnt. However i also said he wont fold and he may.

Meh i take the free card.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. He only has to fold 20 % of the time for this to be a break even play

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume that "break even" means equally good compared to the alternative play of checking? In that case there is no reason to believe your statement is true. There is no easy way to determine the correctness of a bet based on fold probability.

It is true that if we bet and he folds at least 20% of the time we have at least zero EV. But checking has a positive EV and probably quite a large EV based on our apparent outs and possible best hand with position. We will often win this pot after checking. Can betting earn us even more than that? Maybe, but that's what the whole thread is about. No shortcuts to the answer.

Don't confuse this situation with two other situations where your type of reasoning does apply:

1. You have the effective nut low on the river. If you don't bet you surely lose.

2. Your only reasonable alternative to betting is check-folding and the chance of receiving a free card is nil. If you don't bet you surely lose.